【摘要】 目的 分析蚌埠市2012—2021年丙型肝炎流行特征并对未来发病趋势进行预测。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统丙肝监测模块获取2012—2021年报告的现住址为蚌埠市的丙肝病例数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析蚌埠市2012—2021年丙肝流行病学特征,同时运用指数平滑法依据均方根误差最小原则确立最优预测模型,预测蚌埠市2022—2023年丙肝发病趋势。结果 2012—2021年蚌埠市共报告丙肝病例3 638例,男性1 908例,女性1 730例,男女比为1.10∶1,年报告发病率平均增长速度为8.76%,呈波动上升趋势(χ²_趋势=62.530,P<0.001);40～49岁年龄组报告发病人数最多,占23.17%（843/3 638）;农民群体报告病例数最多,占50.38%（1 833/3 638）;不同月份报告丙肝病例构成比差异有统计学意义（χ²=28.700,P=0.003）,其中4月报告病例数最多,共计342例;报告病例数居前3的县（区）分别是五河县（1 050例,占28.86%）、禹会区（643例,占17.67%）、蚌山区（600例,占16.49%）。应用Winter相加模型对2022—2023年蚌埠市丙肝报告发病率进行预测,预测年报告发病率为14.30/10万与16.44/10万。结论 蚌埠市2012—2021年丙肝发病率呈上升趋势,Winter相加模型能较好预测蚌埠市丙肝发病趋势,应结合预测模型结果,加强丙肝监测检测和规范治疗。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective predict To incidence hepatitis analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis method C was in Bengbu applied City to from analyze2012the to2021and trends.Methods Descriptive C the future epidemiology2021,which epidemiological surveillance characteristics of of in Disease Bengbu Control was City and employed from2012Prevention to to obtained China through Center the hepatitis Disease C Control module Information exponential System smoothing for sponsored optimal by for and square total Prevention,the error method trend establish Bengbu prediction model.Minimum root to mean2021,a was638aphepati-2023.Results From and plied tis to predict cases the were of hepatitis in C in City,1from cases2022in to males2012of of3C average were reported incidence from Bengbu growth9081730cases in females,with a sex ratio1.10∶1.The trend(χ²_trend=62.530,P<0.001);most total annual reported rate years was age8.76%,showed group,accounting a for the fluctuating23.17%upward of cases reported40to49the number638)（843/3with638）;cases most were at all occupations,farmers’difference accounting for50.38%hepatitis of cases total by cases month(1was833/3the significant occupation reported;the（χ²=28.700,P=0.003）,A-（counties）in the the proportion highest of reported of C statistically total;the pril cases.The had were Winter2023,the number County cases050reported,with342cases in District top three districts and in District Bengbu terms of reported Wuhe（1model annual cases,28.86%）,Yuhui was（643,17.67%）reported Bengshan hepatitis（600,16.49%）City summation predicted followed to predict14.30/100the000incidence16.44/100of C in from2022incidence predicting to of the and respectively.Conclusion The summation incidence was was rising and2021,and000,hepatitis incidence standardized C in trend Bengbu of City hepatitis from Bengbu2012to the the winter results model prediction was promising in C in hepatitis City.According should to of the model,surveillance,detection treatment of C be strengthened.更多还原