【摘要】 为明确松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus的传播媒介樟子松墨天牛Monochamus galloprovincialis传入我国的可能性及其潜在风险，通过收集该天牛的现有分布数据、寄主信息和海关截获记录等资料，立足于检疫性有害生物传入的关键节点，利用MaxEnt模型和@RISK软件对其适生区范围和传入可能性进行分析。结果表明，樟子松墨天牛的适生区遍布全国多地，总适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的62.0%，其中以低适生区为主，中、高适生区分布在我国南方，涉及云南、重庆和贵州等省（直辖市）。在现有条件下，该天牛随针叶原木传入我国的概率均值为6.59×10^-5。依据敏感性分析结果，入境针叶原木携带樟子松墨天牛的概率以及不合格原木中樟子松墨天牛的感染比例是影响樟子松墨天牛传入的关键因素。因此，为防止樟子松墨天牛传入我国，建议应加强对入境针叶原木中樟子松墨天牛的检疫力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 To assess the potential risks and possibility of introducing pine sawyer beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis in China, the existing distribution data, host information, and customs interception records of the longicorn beetle were utilized for analyzing potential distribution and introduction probabilities with MaxEnt and @RISK software. The results showed that M. galloprovincialis had a widespread potential distribution, covering 62.0% of the total land area in China. The majority of areas were classified as slightly suitability, while moderately and highly suitable areas were scattered in southern regions such as Yunnan, Chongqing, and Guizhou provinces（municipalities）. The average probability of M. galloprovincialis introduction through a batch of coniferous logs was 6.59×10^-5under current conditions.Sensitivity analysis indicated that the probability of M. galloprovincialis being present in imported logs and the infection proportion of M. galloprovincialis in unqualified logs were key factors affecting beetle introduction. To prevent M. galloprovincialis from entering China, it is recommended to strengthen quarantine measures for M. galloprovincialis in imported logs.更多还原