【摘要】 【目的】稀土是广泛应用于国防军工、清洁能源技术等战略性行业的关键矿产。中美经贸摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情的爆发加速了全球稀土供应链重构进程，使得中国稀土产业的全球供应链地位受到挑战。在此背景下，本文旨在基于供应链韧性视角探究境外国家（地区）稀土供应链韧性的演变过程和趋势，并据此提出中国的应对策略。【方法】本文构建了一套稀土供应链韧性评估指标体系，包括敏捷性、稳健性和依赖度3个维度；并以钕铁硼永磁体为例，综合运用事件序列分析、半结构化访谈、网络仿真等方法评估了境外国家（地区）的稀土供应链韧性。【结果】(1)“稀土危机”之后，境外国家（地区）的稀土供应链敏捷性得到较大幅度提升，包括稀土新矿开采量增加、回收率提升、替代量和重稀土应用量减少等；(2)境外国家（地区）的稀土供应链稳健性整体上出现下降，境外国家（地区）对中国稀土产品的进口依赖度呈现从中上游往下游转移的趋势；(3)总体而言，虽然中国出口仍然是影响境外国家（地区）的稀土供应链稳健性的关键因素，但是其影响力度有下降的趋势。【结论】中国应当在持续推动稀土技术自主创新的基础上，通过深度嵌入全球稀土供应链网络等方式参与全球稀土供应链治理。同时，中国应当模拟境外国家（地区）与中国稀土供应链脱钩的可能情景，尽早制定国际博弈与合作方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] Rare earths are widely used in strategic industries such as national defense and military industry, and clean energy technology. The Sino-US economic and trade frictions and the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic have accelerated the restructuring of the global rare earth supply chain, which has challenged the status of China’s rare earth industry in the global supply chain. In this context, based on the perspective of supply chain resilience, this study aimed to explore the evolutionary process of rare earth supply chain resilience in overseas countries(regions),and put forward China’s countermeasures accordingly. [Methods] This study constructed an evaluation indicator system of rare earth supply chain resilience, including three dimensions of agility,robustness, and dependence. Taking NdFeB permanent magnet as an example, the resilience of rare earth supply chain in overseas countries(regions) was evaluated by using event sequence analysis,semi-structured interviews, and network simulation. [Results](1) After the“rare earth crisis”, the agility of rare earth supply chain in overseas countries(regions) has been greatly improved, including the increase of new rare earth mining, the improvement of recovery rate, the increase of replacement amount, and the reduced use of heavy rare earth elements.(2) The resilience of the rare earth supply chain in overseas countries(regions) has declined on the whole. The import dependence of overseas countries(regions) on China’s rare earth products showed a trend of transferring from the upstream to the downstream.(3) In general, although China’s exports are still the key factor that affects the resilience of rare earth supply chain in overseas countries(regions), its influence tends to decline. [Conclusion] On the basis of continuing to promote independent innovation in rare earth technology, China should participate in global rare earth supply chain governance by deeply embedding in the global rare earth supply chain network. At the same time, China should simulate the possible scenario of overseas countries(regions) decoupling from China’s rare earth supply chain, and prepare international game and cooperation plan as soon as possible.更多还原