【摘要】 鉴于居民能源消费的间接回弹效应影响广泛但现有研究不充分,使用碳排放量结合再分配模型和20部门环境投入产出表,测算了2002年、2007年、2012年和2017年中国居民能源消费的间接回弹效应。实证结果显示:间接回弹效应在3.90%～12.88%之间;间接回弹效应在时间上呈倒“U”型,在空间上城镇大于农村。针对双碳目标可能导致三种重要因素的变化进行模拟,分析得出间接回弹效应受居民单位碳排放的能源支出提升而增大的幅度最大,随后向关联系数降低而减小的幅度次之,受城镇化影响的变动最小;在一般政策情景和长期低碳转型情景中,2030年的间接回弹效应均>13%,2060年的间接回弹效应在一般政策情景高达46.55%,在长期低碳转型情景为11.77%。持续推进能源结构和整个经济系统的低碳化转型以及促进居民消费低碳化,应是在双碳目标下降低间接回弹效应的关键对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The residential energy consumption indirect rebound effect has a wide impact but limited research. This paper estimates the indirect rebound effect of China’s residential energy consumption in 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017 using a combination of the redistribution model and the 20 sectors’ environmental Input-Output table, with CO₂ emission being the measure.The results show that the indirect rebound effect of residential energy consumption is between 3.90% and 12.88%. The indirect rebound effect shows an inverse U-shape across the time dimension. Besides, the urban indirect rebound effect is consistently higher than the rural indirect rebound effect. This study conducts simulations focusing on three important factors that may change under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals to compare their impact on the indirect rebound effect. The analyses show that the indirect rebound effect increases the most when the residential unit carbon emission expenses increase. The indirect rebound effect decreases but not as much when the backward relating coefficients decrease and is affected the least by the simulated urbanization rate. In both general policy scenario and long-term low-carbon transition scenario, the indirect rebound effect in 2030 is greater than 13%, the general policy scenario in 2060 is as high as 46.55%, and the long-term low-carbon transition scenario is 11.77%. We discussed key policy recommendations for the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, including pushing forward policies to transform the energy structure as well as the whole economic system, and promote low-carbon residential consumption to offset the increasing trend of indirect rebound effect.更多还原