【摘要】 目的 评价福建省2022年BA.2和BA.5.2毒株引发的本土疫情的防控措施迭代优化的科学性及防控效果，为应对未来新发或再发呼吸道传染性疾病提供科学依据。方法 基于传染病动力学理论，收集福建省2022年3月由BA.2亚型和2022年10月由BA.5.2亚型毒株引发的本土疫情的相关信息，建构带有潜伏期和无症状感染者的新冠病毒感染的SEIAR（susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed, SEIAR）模型，分析2起本土疫情的传播动力学特征，并评估防控效果。结果 BA.2疫情的潜伏期为3 d（1～9 d）,代间距为3 d（1～5 d）,起始R_t为3.0（95%CI:2.7～3.3）,发病3 170例；BA.5.2疫情的潜伏期为2 d（1～6 d）,代间距为1 d（0～2 d）,起始R_t为1.9（95%CI:1.7～2.1）,发病1 540例；模型拟合BA.2和BA.5.2疫情的预测和实际发病数差异均无统计学差异(χ²_BA.2=31.53、χ²_BA.2=27.88,P>0.05);如未启动应急响应，BA.2疫情将于4月7日达到高峰，估计峰值638 035例；而BA.5.2疫情将于11月14日达到高峰，估计峰值685 940例；BA.2疫情如提早发现1个潜伏期，规模将下降25.73%,提早2个潜伏期，将下降79.56%,推迟1个潜伏期，扩大13.72%;BA.5.2疫情如提早发现1个潜伏期，规模将下降35.04%,提早2个潜伏期，将下降92.47%,推迟1个潜伏期，扩大19.75%。结论 2起本土疫情处置的指导思想和防控措施优化迭代，落实“四早”措施可有效降低疫情规模，且时机越早，控制成效越明显，这为防控新发或再发呼吸道传染病积累宝贵经验。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study evaluated the scientific nature and effectiveness of iterative optimization of prevention and control measures for local outbreaks caused by the BA.2 and BA.5.2 COVID-19 strains in Fujian Province in 2022, to provide a scientific basis for responding to future new or recurrent respiratory infectious diseases. According to the theory of infectious disease dynamics, relevant information regarding the local epidemic situation caused by the BA.2 sub-type Omicron virus strain in March 2022 and BA.5.2 sub-type Omicron virus strain in October 2022 in Fujian Province was collected.The susceptible exposed infectious removed（SEIAR） model of COVID-19 infection with a latent period and asymptomatic infected persons was used to analyze the transmission dynamics of two local epidemic situations, and evaluate the prevention and control effects. The incubation period of the BA.2 epidemic was 3 days（1～9 days）, the intergenerational interval was 3 days（1～5 days）, and the initial R_t was 3.0（95%CI: 2.7～3.3）.The incubation period of the BA.5.2 epidemic was 2 days（1～6 days）, the intergenerational interval was 1 day（0～2 days）, and the initial R_t was 1.9（95%CI: 1.7～2.1）. The fittingresults for the BA.2 and BA.5.2 epidemics were good, and no statistical difference was observed between the predicted and actual numbers of cases(χ²_BA.2=31.53, χ²_BA.2=27.88, P>0.05).If an emergency response had not been initiated, the BA.2 epidemic would have continued to spread andpeak on April 7th, with an estimated 638 035 cases.The BA.5.2 epidemic would have rapidly spread, reaching a peak on November 14th, with an estimated 685 940 cases.If one incubation period were detected early, the scale of the BA.2 epidemic would have decreased by 25.73%; if two incubation periods were detected early, the scale would have decreased by 79.56%, and if one incubation period had been delayed, the scale would have expanded by 13.72%.If one incubation period had been detected early in the BA.5.2 epidemic, the scale would have decreased by 35.04%;if two incubation periods had been detected early, the scale would have decreased by 92.47%; and if one incubation period had been delayed, the scale would have increased by 19.75%.The guiding ideology, and the prevention and control measures for handling two local epidemics were optimized and iterated.Our study indicated that implementing the "four early" measures effectively decreased the scale of the epidemic, and earlier detection was associated with more significant control effects.This study provides valuable information for the prevention and control of new or recurrent respiratory infectious diseases.更多还原