【摘要】 针对单个产品前期退化过快、无法直接利用前期退化数据有效预测性能退化量的问题，基于Wiener过程，提出了一种融合同类产品数据的性能退化预测方法。首先，构建Wiener过程退化模型并介绍其性质，推导该性能退化模型下的产品寿命分布；然后，基于是否符合整体退化趋势进行数据预处理，截取产品后期的性能退化数据；最后，融合待测产品与同类型产品的性能退化数据，并基于极大似然估计方法开展性能退化预测。此外，通过某型收口螺母应用案例，证明了所提出的融合同类产品数据的性能退化预测方法的有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the problem that the early degradation of a single product is too fast to predict the performance degradation using the early degradation data directly, this paper proposes a performance degradation prediction method based on Wiener processes, which integrates the data of similar products.Firstly, the Wiener process degradation model is constructed and its properties are given, and the product life distribution under the performance degradation model is derived. Then, considering the overall degradation trend, data preprocessing is carried out to obtain the performance degradation data of the product in the later stage. Finally, the performance degradation data of the tested product and the same type of product are fused, and the performance degradation prediction is conducted based on the maximum likelihood estimation method. In this paper, using the closed nut as an application case, the effectiveness of the proposed performance degradation prediction method based on the data of similar products is proved.更多还原