【摘要】 在我国承诺“2030年前碳达峰，2060年前碳中和”的可持续发展目标背景下，民用建筑的未来用能强度预测和节能技术路线研究对我国碳达峰、碳中和的实现有着重要影响。从公共建筑、城镇住宅、农村住宅、北方采暖等四个领域，在分析了节能重点的基础上，运用情景假设、数值模拟等方法，对我国中长期民用建筑的未来用能强度进行了预测，提出了相应的节能技术路线，为实现我国建筑领域的碳达峰和碳中和提供理论和方法支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 As China has committed to the sustainable development goals of "peak carbon before 2030 and carbon neutral before 2060", the prediction of the future energy intensity of civil buildings and the study of energy-saving technology routes have an important impact on the achievement of the goals. In this paper, based on the analysis of energy saving priorities in four areas,including public buildings, urban residential buildings, rural residential buildings, and northern heating plants, scenarios and numerical simulations are used to predict the future energy intensity of civil buildings in China in the medium and long term, and the corresponding energy saving technology routes are proposed to provide theoretical and methodological support for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China’s building sector.更多还原