【摘要】 探究城市蔓延如何影响城市代谢效率对合理进行城市规划具有重要意义。首先基于非期望产出的SBM模型测算了中国285个地级市2004—2019年的城市代谢效率并分析了收敛性情况，接着运用Tobit模型和面板门槛模型分别检验了城市蔓延与城市代谢效率的线性相关关系和非线性相关关系，最后以两阶段SYS-GMM构建动态回归模型和替换核心解释变量的方法进行了稳健性检验。结果表明：(1)2004—2019年全国城市代谢效率有所提升，且上一年城市代谢效率对当年城市代谢效率产生了显著正向影响，表现为“滚雪球”效应。各地区城市代谢效率值的差距逐渐缩小，存在σ收敛与绝对β收敛。(2)城市蔓延能显著提高城市代谢效率但存在区域异质性，东部地区与省会城市的作用不显著且为负，中部地区、西部地区、东北地区和非省会城市的正向作用显著。控制变量中，网络普及程度、经济发展水平和非农人口占比对城市代谢效率呈显著正向作用，财政分权和外资利用率的回归系数不显著。(3)城市蔓延对城市代谢效率的影响呈倒“U”型曲线，在公共交通的调节下，城市蔓延对城市代谢效率的影响呈“U”型曲线，而在产业结构高级化的门槛约束下，城市蔓延对城市代谢效率的促进作用呈现“跃迁式”的增长。通过动态面板和以平均灯光密度替换城市蔓延指数的稳健性检验结果与原回归结果保持高度一致。因此，应当依照城市所处的不同发展阶段合理控制蔓延速度，加强公共交通和信息网络等基础设施建设，并合理协调三次产业发展，进一步提高城镇化率，以促进城市代谢效率的提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Exploring how urban sprawl affects urban metabolic efficiency is of great significance for rational urban planning. First, using the SBM model of undesirable output, this study calculated the urban metabolic efficiency of 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2019 and analyzed the convergence. Then, the Tobit model and the panel threshold model were used to test the linear and nonlinear relationships between urban sprawl and urban metabolic efficiency, respectively. Finally, the method of constructing a dynamic regression model and replacing core explanatory variables with two-stage SYS-GMM was used to test the robustness. The conclusion showed that:(1) From 2004 to 2019, the urban metabolic efficiency across the country improved, and the urban metabolic efficiency in the previous year had a significant positive impact on the urban metabolic efficiency in the current year, manifesting as a ‘snowball’ effect.(2) Urban sprawl could significantly improve the metabolic efficiency of cities, but there was regional heterogeneity. The effects of the eastern regions and provincial capitals were insignificant and negative, while the positive effects of the central, western, northeastern, and non-provincial capital cities were significant.(3) The impact of urban sprawl on urban metabolic efficiency was in an invertedU shape. Under the regulation of public transportation, the impact of urban sprawl on urban metabolic efficiency was U-shaped, and under the threshold constraints of advanced industrial structure, the promotion effect of urban sprawl on urban metabolic efficiency showed a ‘leap-forward’ growth. The results of the robustness test using dynamic panels and replacing the urban sprawl index with average light density were highly consistent with the original regression results. Therefore, according to the different development stages of cities, the spread speed should be reasonably controlled, the construction of infrastructure such as public transportation and information networks should be strengthened, and the development of the three industries should be reasonably coordinated to further increase the urbanization rate, so as to promote the improvement of urban metabolic efficiency.更多还原