【摘要】 一旦房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为发生大范围扩散，将诱发房地产市场的价格严重偏离甚至动荡。本文从传播学与行为金融学交叉视角，基于复杂网络理论构建了房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为的网络扩散模型，进而仿真分析了网络舆情与投资者行为偏好交互作用下房地产投资者“追涨杀跌”行为扩散的演化特征。研究表明：房地产投资者越偏向于随机建立关联，“追涨杀跌”行为越可能快速扩散；网络舆情因素在“追涨杀跌”行为扩散过程中发挥主导作用，同时对投资者行为偏好因素发挥较强的“强化效应”或“抑制效应”;当媒体权威性足够高或网民情绪足够乐观时，通过综合调节网络舆情和投资者行为偏好因素能够有效实现预防和限制“追涨杀跌”行为扩散的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the guidance of Internet public opinion, it is likely to intensify the speculative psychology of real estate investors, and then evolve into behavior of “buying the winners” and intensify its diffusion. Once the behavior of “buying the winners” occurs in a large scale, it will lead to serious value deviation of the real estate market or even turbulence, which is not conducive to the stable development of national economy and the improvement of people’s living standards. However, the current research rarely considers the interaction of Internet users, media and government, which leads to the conclusion that the behavior of “buying the winners” is not representative enough. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the synergistic effect of these three main bodies, and then to study the diffusion mechanism and evolution characteristics of the behavior of “buying the winners” under the disturbance of network public opinion.Firstly, from the perspective of collaborative interaction among Internet users, media and government, the formation and diffusion mechanism of behavior of “buying the winners” are discussed under the disturbance of Internet public opinion. Secondly, from the cross perspective of communication science and behavioral finance, based on the complex network theory, the associated network of real estate investors and the network diffusion model of behavior of “buying the winners” are constructed under the disturbance of Internet public opinion. Then, the structural characteristics of the associated network of real estate investors and the diffusion equilibrium point and threshold of the behavior of “buying the winners” are analyzed. Finally, the evolution characteristics of real estate investor’s behavior diffusion of “buying the winners” are analyzed under the disturbance of Internet public opinion.The simulation results show that the more the real estate investors prefer to establish association by random way, the more likely the behavior of “buying the winners” will spread rapidly. In addition, the behavior of “buying the winners” has been solidified in the thinking and behavior habits of some real estate investors, which cannot be eradicated, but should focus on the prevention and restriction of their possible proliferation. The factor of internet public opinion plays a leading role in the behavior diffusion process of “buying the winners”, while playing a strong “strengthening effect” or “restraining effect” on the factor investor behavior preference. When the authority of the media is high enough or the mood of Internet users is optimistic enough, the purpose of preventing and limiting the behavior spread of “buying the winners” can be effectively achieved by adjusting the factors of internet public opinion and investor behavior preference.In this paper, from the cross perspective of communication science and behavioral finance, by comprehensively considering the interaction of Internet users, media and government, based on the complex network theory, an endogenous real estate investor network and a network diffusion model of behavior of “buying the winners” are constructed, and then the behavior diffusion mechanism of “buying the winners” is analyzed under the disturbance of network public opinion.The conclusion of this paper has important theoretical significance and practical application value for the government departments to formulate and implement measures to prevent and limit the spread of “buying the winners”.更多还原