【摘要】 目的:分析我国0～10岁人群肺结核在年龄、时期和队列上的发病变化情况。方法:通过搜集中国公共卫生科学数据中心2004—2018年的肺结核报告发病数据，运用年龄-时期-队列模型(APC)分析年龄、时期和队列对我国0～10岁人群肺结核发病的影响。结果:2004—2018年我国全人群肺结核报告发病率和0～10岁人群肺结核报告发病率均呈下降趋势，分别由2004年的74.64/10万和8.14/10万下降至2018年的59.27/10万和1.22/10万(χ~2_趋势=211.469,P=0.001;χ~2_趋势=210.018,P=0.001)。APC模型分析结果显示，年龄-时期-队列模型对0～10岁人群发病具有明显影响，横向年龄别肺结核发病率随着年龄的增加由6.12/10万降低至1.06/10万(χ~2_趋势=89.765,P=0.013);发病风险随着时间的推进而降低，RR值由0.97降低至0.14;出生队列越晚发病的风险越小，RR值由6.38降低至0.15。结论:随着横向年龄、时期和队列的不断推进，0～10岁人群肺结核的发病风险不断降低，可见，肺结核疫苗的接种和预防控制工作效果显著，但仍然需要加强肺结核知识的宣传和监测力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the changes in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in China’s 0-10-year-old population in terms of age, period, and cohort. Methods: By collecting the incidence data of tuberculosis reported to the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center from 2004 to 2018, the age period cohort（APC） model was used to analyze the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of tuberculosis among the 0-10 years old population in China. Results: From 2004 to 2018, the annual average reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the whole population of China and the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in people aged 0 to 10 years showed a downward trend, decreasing from 74.64/100 000 and 8.14/100 000 in 2004 to 59.27/100 000 and 1.22/100 000 in 2018, respectively(χ²_trend=211.469, P=0.001; χ²_trend=210.018, P=0.001). The APC model analysis showed that age-period-cohort had a significant impact on the tuberculosis incidence of 0-10 years old population. The cross-sectional age specific incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis decreased from 6.12/100 000 to 1.06/100 000 with the increase of age(χ²_trend=89.765, P=0.013); The incidence risk decreased with time, and the RR value decreased from 0.97 to 0.14; The later the birth cohort, the lower the risk of onset, and the RR value decreased from 6.38 to 0.15. Conclusion: The risk of tuberculosis incidence in the 0-10 age group was decreasing as the cross-sectional age, period, and cohort continued to advance, which showed that the effect of tuberculosis vaccination and preventive control was significant, but there is still a need to strengthen the dissemination of tuberculosis knowledge and enhance tuberculosis surveillance.更多还原