【摘要】 本文在标准的租金定价模型下，引入房地产周期运行中的预期房价波动，理论分析了租金、租售比与房价变动关联性的内在逻辑，进一步利用2015-2023年全国300多个城市的数据进行了实证检验，并以租售比变动走势与房价变动趋势的关联性为着眼点，探究从城市租售比相对自身基准值的变动中来预测研判该城市的房价未来发展趋势。研究发现，在考察期内，房价变动与租金变动呈正相关关系，并随着周期的拉长而加强；在繁荣周期，房价变动与租售比变动呈现负相关关系，意味着房价上涨伴随着租售比的恶化，房价增长的经济基本面基础逐渐脆弱；在下行周期，房价变动与租售比变动呈现正相关关系，租售比累计恶化越严重，城市房价下降幅度越大，租售比改善越明显，城市房价的抗跌韧性越强。本文的研究结论对于发掘中国租金、租售比与房价的变动规律具有一定经验价值，也为因城施策调控房地产市场提供了理论依据和优化方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the standard rental pricing model, this paper introduces the expected housing price fluctuations during the real estate cycles and analyzes theoretically the inherent logic of the correlation between rental, rent-price ratio and housing price changes. Furthermore, empirical tests had been conducted using data of more than 300 cities nationwide from 2015 to 2023. Focusing on the correlation between the change trends of rent-price ratio and housing price, the study explores predicting and assessing the future development trend of a city’s housing prices based on the relative changes of rent price ratio on its benchmark values. The research findings indicate a positive correlation between housing price changes and rental changes over the examination period, strengthening as the cycle lengthens. During the prosperity cycle, the housing price changes exhibit a negative correlation against rent-price ratio changes, implying that rising housing prices accompany deteriorating rent-price ratios and the economic fundamental supporting housing price increases weakens gradually. In the downturn cycle, the housing price changes show a positive correlation with the rent-price ratio changes; the more severe the cumulative deterioration of rent-price ratio, the greater the decline of city housing prices; the more noticeable improvements on rent-price ratios, the stronger resistance on the falling housing prices. The conclusions of this study not only hold valuable experience for uncovering the change patterns of rental, rent-price ratios and housing prices in China, but also provide a theoretical basis and optimization direction for the cityspecific real estate market regulation.更多还原