【摘要】 目前国内外提出的液化评估方法以公式形式为主，其中的概率评估公式结果保守且普遍形式复杂、计算过程繁复，而大面积、多数据点的液化小区划更需要评估客观且形式简单的方法。为此，提出了基于剪切波速的优化Logistic液化概率公式和对应的液化可能性等级评估表法。根据国内外公开的剪切波速液化现场调查资料，计算得出了样本液化概率作为液化可能性分级依据，并通过决策树方法构建了3种精度的液化可能性等级表。将Kayen等的数据集作为回判数据集，衡量优化后公式及等级评估表的合理性。结果表明：优化后的概率公式误判点集中在液化临界线附近，误判影响程度小于Kayen液化概率公式；3种精度下的等级评估表均能正确分离出70%以上的场地，且客观地兼顾了液化场地与非液化场地的整体评估，简化了液化可能性评估过程，提高了剪切波速液化概率评估方法的适用性，实现了无需计算即可评估液化可能性的目的，可为开展以剪切波速为数据来源的液化小区划提供技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 The existing methods are mainly expressed in equation form for evaluating the soil liquefaction, among which the equation of liquefaction probability evaluation method is particularly complicated and conservative. However, for the liquefaction microzoning of large-area and multi-points, objective and simple methods are needed. Therefor an optimized Logistic liquefaction probability equation and the corresponding tabular liquefaction probability evaluation method were developed. According to the published results of shear wave velocity liquefaction field in-site tests, the liquefaction probabilities of samples were calculated as the basis for grading the liquefaction possibility, and three precision liquefaction probability criteria tables were constructed by decision tree method. Then the data set constructed by Kayen et al. was used as the judgment data set. The differences between the optimized equation and Kayen’s liquefaction probability equation were compared to meet the purpose of measuring the reasonableness of the optimized equation and criteria tables. The results show that the influence of misjudgment by the optimized equation on actual engineering is less than Kayen’s equation. All the three criteria tables can properly isolate more than 70% of the sites, and the evaluation of liquefied site and non-liquefied site are both well considered. The criteria tables simplify the evaluation process of liquefaction probability,improve the applicability of shear wave velocity liquefaction probability evaluation method, and realize the purpose of evaluating liquefaction probability without calculation. The tabular method will provide support for liquefaction microzoning based on shear wave velocity.更多还原