【摘要】 国际金融危机后，美国出台一系列制造业回流的政策与措施，以减少对中国供应链的依赖，弱化中国在全球供应链中的作用。构建2000—2021年中国行业层面的供应链风险指数与美国制造业回流指数，并基于中间品贸易的视角探究两者间的影响机理。研究发现：美国制造业回流将阻碍外资对中国的技术溢出效应，弱化中国在国际生产网络中的地位，加强中国对国际市场中间品供给与需求的依赖；也会通过中高端制造业回流的集聚效应降低中国对国际市场依赖的多元化程度，进而对中国供应链安全产生不利影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper construct an industry-level supply chain risk index and an American manufacturing reflow index from 2000 to 2021, and explores the influence mechanism between them from the perspective of intermediate goods trade. The results show that reflux in U.S. manufacturing industry will hinder foreign capital’s technology spillover effect to china, weaken the position in international production network and strengthen dependence on supply and demand of intermediate products in the international market. It will also reduce the diversification degree of China’s dependence on the international market through the agglomeration effect of the reflux of the middle and high-end manufacturing industry, which will have a negative impact on the security of china’s supply chain.更多还原