【摘要】 为探究封站对区域车站客流的影响，通过分析封站条件下周边车站进出站客流特征及乘客出行行为，归纳了封站客流影响因素，将封站条件下周边车站的客流变化进行了拆分解析，并提出了相应进出站客流构成的计算方法。基于随机森林算法构建了封站条件下周边车站进出站客流变化的预测模型。最后，以实际封站数据为例验证了模型的准确性，并与未拆分客流预测结果进行了对比。结果表明，提出的客流拆分预测方法具有较好的准确性，可为城市轨道交通运营管理提供支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 To explore the impact of station closures on passenger flow in the surrounding area stations, this paper analyzes the characteristics of passenger flow of the stations around the region and passenger travel behavior under station closure,summarizes the influencing factors of station closure, then splits the passenger flow change in the surrounding stations under station closure, and proposes the calculation method of the corresponding passenger flow composition. Based on the above,this paper constructs a forecast model based on the random forest algorithm for the amount of passenger flow changed of the surrounding stations during station closure, and verifies the accuracy of the model with the actual data, and compares it with the unsplit passenger flow forecast results. The results show that the accuracy of the proposed forecast method is better, and thus can provide support for urban rail transit operation management.更多还原