【摘要】 快速路入口匝道区域交通拥挤日益严重，系统研究其拥挤影响因素对提高路网效益极为重要。目前影响因素的分析较少从快速路与普通道路相连接的交通状态同时考虑，且多以断面为分析对象而非车道级研究。在车道基础上综合考虑快速路与普通道路的交通流情况，通过分析选择流量、车道运行通行能力等5个交通参数，构建入口匝道流量等7个变量，利用上海市快速路入口匝道区域数据，建立入口匝道区域主线下游各车道的面板回归模型，进而确定入口匝道区域交通拥挤的主要影响因素及其系数。模型整体回归误差在12%以下，具有较高的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traffic congestion in the on-ramp area of the expressway is becoming more and more serious. The systematic study of its congestion influencing factors is extremely important to improve the efficiency of the road network. At present,the analyses of influencing factors don’t consider the traffic conditions of connected expressways and ordinary roads at the same time from the regional level. Most of researches take the section as the analysis object rather than the lane-level study.Therefore, it is necessary to consider the traffic flow of expressways and ordinary roads on the basis of lanes. By analyzing and selecting five traffic parameters such as flow, lane operation capacity, and seven variables including on-ramp flow are constructed. Using Shanghai expressway on-ramp area data, a panel regression model for each lane downstream of the main line of the on-ramp area is established. Then the main influencing factors of traffic congestion in the on-ramp area is identified.Then the main influencing factors of traffic congestion in the on-ramp area and their coefficients are determined. The overall regression error of the model is below 12%, which has a high accuracy.更多还原