【摘要】 以京津冀为研究区域，基于DPSIR系统建立评价指标体系，运用变异系数、灰色关联、Spearman相关分析等方法，对其旅游环境可持续承载潜力水平进行综合评价和影响因素分析。结果表明：2010—2020年京津冀旅游环境可持续承载潜力呈良好发展态势；各维度对潜力水平作用强度不均衡，趋势变动显著的是呈上升趋势的驱动力子系统，压力、响应和状态子系统对影响子系统的发展趋势影响不大；社会驱动、环境质量、产业结构和经济响应为强关联层；资源压力、环境压力、资源供给、生态调节、生态响应和社会响应为中等关联层；经济驱动为弱关联层；京津冀旅游环境系统间相对协调，但也面临着旅游资源和生态环境的修复需要较长时间，无法立即对出现的问题进行反馈的现实制约。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the target area, the evaluation index system is established based on DPSIR system, and by using the methods of coefficient of variation, grey correlation and Spearman correlation analysis, the comprehensive evaluation and influencing factor analysis of the sustainable potential bearing capability of its tourism environment are conducted. The results show that: from 2010 to 2019, the tourism environmental sustainable potential capability of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei took on a good trend, and the inter regional variation coefficient presented a “W” shape trend, which showed a shrinking trend as a whole. The effect intensity of each dimension on the potential level is unbalanced. The driving force with upward trend assumed a significant change, and the response and downward pressure have little change to the state. Social drive, environmental quality, industrial structure and economic response are in strong correlation layers. Resource pressure, environmental pressure, resource supply, ecological adaptation, ecological response and social response are in medium correlation layers, and economic drive is in weak correlation layers. The tourism environment systems among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are relatively coordinated, but the practical restriction presently is that the restoration of regional tourism resources and ecological environment will take a long time and may fail to immediately respond to the problems.更多还原