【摘要】 氢冶金是钢铁行业降低碳排放的变革性技术，对工业部门深度脱碳具有重要意义。广东省的钢铁产能占全国的4%，是中国钢铁产能布局较多的地区，钢铁行业能耗在全省终端能耗中的占比为4.6%，碳排放在全省碳排放总量中的占比达到17%，因此钢铁行业深度脱碳将直接影响广东省碳达峰碳中和目标的实现。另一方面，广东省是全国最早推动氢能产业化发展的省份，多种制氢路线的研发和示范已有许多实际案例。分析广东省2020—2035年的粗钢产量变化，对广东省未来可实现的制氢技术路线和产氢能力进行研判，在此基础上，对采用氢作为还原剂替代焦炭的氢冶金工艺产生的能耗、碳排放和成本进行了不同情景分析。结果表明，氢冶金技术能够促使广东省钢铁行业二氧化碳排放大幅减少，2035年在替代情景（氢冶金技术替代率为21.2%）下，与基准情景相比，广东钢铁行业的能耗可以降低2.3%，二氧化碳排放减少10.9%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hydrogen metallurgy is a transformative technology for reducing carbon emissions in the steel industry, and is important for deep decarbonization of the industrial sector. The steel production capacity of Guangdong Province accounts for 4% of the country’s steel production capacity and is the region with the most steel production capacity layout in China.The energy consumption of the steel industry accounts for 4.6% of the province’s final energy consumption, and the carbon emissions account for 17% of the province’s total carbon emissions, so the deep decarbonization of the steel industry will directly affect the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in Guangdong Province. Moreover, Guangdong Province is the earliest province in China to promote the industrialization of hydrogen energy, and there are many practical cases of research and development as well as demonstration of various hydrogen production routes. This paper analyzes the changes of crude steel production in Guangdong Province up to 2035. It makes a study of the achievable future technical routes of hydrogen production and hydrogen production capacity in Guangdong Province, based on which different scenarios of energy consumption, carbon emission and cost generated by the hydrogen metallurgy process using hydrogen as a reducing agent instead of coke are analyzed. The results show that hydrogen metallurgy technology can lead to a significant reduction of CO2 emissions in the steel industry in Guangdong Province, with a 2.3% reduction in energy consumption and a 10.9%reduction in CO2 emissions in 2035 under the alternative scenario(21.2% replacement rate of hydrogen metallurgy technology) compared to the baseline scenario.更多还原