【摘要】 为研究天津市水资源供需远景发展情况，根据天津市水资源供需和发展现状，结合系统动力学方法和层次分析法建立了天津市水资源可持续发展系统动力学模型。将2012—2019年的历史数据与系统动力学方法的模拟数据进行比较，相对误差绝对值基本小于10%,所构建的模型具有较高的可信度，可用于预测天津市未来的水资源承载力发展情况。在此基础上，通过设定现状延续型（S₁）、综合节水型（S₂）、开源治污型（S₃）和综合发展型（S₄）4种不同情景，利用所构建的系统动力学模型预测了2020—2035年水资源供需平衡情况。结果表明：2035年现状延续型情景下天津市总需水量可达41.58×10⁸ m³,2035年S₁～S₄情景的水资源承载系数分别为0.178 2、0.397 3、0.481 5和0.728 1,分析得到2025年南水北调东线供水将大幅缓解天津市水资源超载现状；在4种发展情景中，综合发展型方案对缓解水资源供需不平衡的效果最优，未来应遵循“节水优先，保障供水”的原则，综合实施节水、治污、开源等措施保障天津市水资源系统的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 To study the long-term development of water resources supply and demand in Tianjin City, based on the current situation, a system dynamics model for sustainable water resources development in Tianjin was established using system dynamics and hierarchical analysis method. Then the simulation results were compared with the historical data from 2012 to 2019, the results show that the absolute value of the relative error is less than 10%, so the proposed model is highly reliable, which can be used to predict the future development of water resources carrying capacity of Tianjin City. Four different scenarios, namely, status quo continuity（S₁）, integrated water conservation（S₂）, open-source and pollution control（S₃）, and integrated development（S₄） were set in the system dynamics model to predict the situation of water supply and demand balance in the time frame of 2020-2035. The results show that the total water consumption in Tianjin can reach 4.158×10⁹ m³ under scenario S₁ in 2035, and the water resources carrying coefficients for scenarios S₁-S₄ in 2035 are predicted to be 0.178 2, 0.397 3, 0.481 5 and 0.728 1, respectively. The analysis shows that the water supply from the South-North Water Diversion Project East Line in 2025 will significantly alleviate the overload situation of water resources in Tianjin. Among the four development scenarios, scenario S₄ has the best performance on alleviating the imbalance between water resources supply and demand, so the government should follow the principle of “prioritize water conservation and guarantee water supply”, and implement water conservation, pollution control, and open-source measures to ensure the sustainable development of water resources in Tianjin in the future.更多还原