【摘要】 为探究新型城镇化的高质量发展，基于改进的耦合协调模型对2011—2021年安徽省16市新型城镇化-低碳化系统耦合协调度进行测度，同时采用GM(1,1)模型对未来五年的系统耦合协调度进行预测，结果表明：安徽省新型城镇化-低碳化系统协调发展水平较低，各市呈现出“南高北低、东高西低”的空间分布特征，资源型城市的发展面临困境；2026年安徽省大部分城市将实现良好协调发展，而淮南市和马鞍山市将仍处于勉强协调发展阶段。据此提出打造低碳城镇化、制定差异化发展战略等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to explore the high-quality development of new urbanization, the article measures the coupling coordination degree of new urbanization and low-carbonization system in 16 cities of Anhui Province from 2011 to 2021 based on the improved coupling coordination model, and predicts the coupling coordination degree of the system in the next five years by using GM(1,1) model, the results show that: the level of coordinated development of new urbanization and low-carbonization system in Anhui Province is low. The level of coordinated development of the new urbanization and low-carbonization system in Anhui Province is low, and the cities show the spatial distribution characteristics of “high in the south and east, low in the north and west”, and the development of resource-based cities faces difficulties; In 2026, most cities in Anhui Province will achieve sound coordinated development, while Huainan City and Maanshan City will still be at the stage of barely coordinated development. Accordingly, suggestions such as creating low-carbon urbanization and formulating differentiated development strategies are put forward.更多还原