【摘要】 针对高速公路桥隧结合段特有行车环境，考虑行驶速度、桥面侧风、天气条件、车辆类型、道路线形等影响因素，根据车辆动力学性能确定仿真试验的响应指标，建立安全评价指标体系；采用TruckSim、CarSim车辆动力学仿真软件对车辆驶出隧道进入桥梁这一过程进行模拟分析，获取不同车型在不同天气下的侧向偏移量、偏航角、横摆角速度、侧向加速度、最大偏移量位置等响应指标的变化规律；采用组合赋权法确定各响应指标权重，通过模糊综合评价方法计算多场景下的综合风险值，划分安全风险等级；基于响应面法建立行车安全风险预测模型，并对河南省渑池—洛宁高速公路桥隧结合段进行交通安全性分析。研究结果表明：在桥隧结合段行驶过程中，对小型车行车安全而言，行驶速度影响最大，其次是天气条件，桥面侧风影响最小；对大型车行车安全而言，桥面侧风影响最大，其次是天气条件，行驶速度影响最小。提出的安全车速建议值可为制定动态车速限制策略提供技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the unique driving environment of the bridge-tunnel junction section of expressway, considering the influencing factors such as running speed, bridge deck crosswind, weather conditions, vehicle type and road alignment, the response indexs of simulation experiment was determined according to the vehicle dynamic performance, and the safety evaluation index system was established. Vehicle dynamics simulation software TruckSim and CarSim were used to simulate and analyze the process of vehicles exiting the tunnel and entering the bridge, and the change rules of response indicators such as lateral offset, yaw angle, yaw angle velocity, lateral acceleration and maximum offset position of different models under different weather conditions were obtained. The combination weighting method was used to determine the weights of response indexs, and the comprehensive risk value under multiple scenarios were calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the safety risk levels were classified. The driving safety risk prediction models were established based on response surface method, and the traffic safety of the bridge-tunnel junction section of Mianchi Luoning Expressway in Henan Province was evaluated. The results show that in the driving process of bridge-tunnel junction section, the running speed has the greatest impact on the driving safety of small vehicles, followed by weather conditions, and the influence of bridge deck crosswind is the lowest. For the driving safety of large vehicles, the influence of bridge deck crosswind is the largest, followed by weather conditions, and the influence of running speed is the lowest. The proposed safe speed can provide technical support for developing dynamic speed limit strategies. 16 tabs, 12 figs, 24 refs.更多还原