【摘要】 近年来，贸易保护主义、新一轮工业革命、区域合作活动、新冠肺炎疫情等多重因素叠加作用，推动全球价值链步入深度调整和重构时期，两岸经贸关系发展因而面临新的挑战与机遇。本文以中美贸易争端和RCEP签署实施为两个典型事件，基于GTAP模型模拟量化评估全球价值链重构对于两岸经贸关系发展的影响效应。结果表明：由两个典型事件所表征的全球价值链的分散化和区域化趋势，都会造成一定的产能重置效应与贸易转移效应，影响台湾地区厂商的跨境生产布局与相关经济体之间的双边贸易格局；在此过程中，台湾地区厂商需要权衡贸易成本与生产效率以决定在中国大陆的产能配置结构，而两岸贸易规模将在一定程度上被削弱，台湾地区也面临在区域价值链构建过程中被边缘化的风险。综合判断，全球价值链重构恰为中国大陆推动经济结构转型、提升全球生产分工效能提供了迫切动力；而未来两岸经贸关系的发展，在极大程度上将取决于中国大陆经济转型与区域经济整合的成效。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the convergence of multiple factors such as trade protectionism, the new phase of the industrial revolution, regional cooperation activities, and the COVID-19 pandemic has propelled the global value chain into a period of deep adjustment and reconstruction. As a result, the development of cross-Straits economic and trade relations faces new challenges and opportunities. This paper takes the Sino-US trade dispute and the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) as two typical events and uses the GTAP model to quantitatively assess the impact of global value chain reconstruction on the development of cross-Straits economic and trade relations. The results show that the fragmentation of GVCs and the integration of regional value chains(RVCs) will lead to capacity allocation and trade diversion effects. These changes will further affect the cross-border production layout of Taiwanese-funded enterprises and the bilateral trade patterns with relevant economies. In this process, Taiwanese-funded enterprises need to balance trade costs and production efficiency to determine their capacity allocation structure in the Chinese mainland, while the cross-Straits trade volume will be weakened to a certain extent. Taiwan also faces the risk of marginalization in the process of East Asian RVC construction. In summary, the GVC reconstruction provides an urgent impetus for the Chinese mainland to promote economic structural transformation and enhance the effectiveness of the global production division. The future development of cross-Straits economic and trade relations will largely depend on the effectiveness of the mainland’s economic transformation and regional economic integration.更多还原