【摘要】 本文选取郑州市为研究区，基于2010,2015和2020年土地利用数据，采用土地利用转移矩阵和生态环境效应评估方法，分析2010—2020年“三生空间”格局变化和生态环境质量时空演变。采用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型，以2015年土地利用数据为基准，结合自然发展情景、生产优先情景和生态保护情景三种情景，模拟2035年“三生空间”格局发展，并计算区域生态环境质量指数及生态贡献率。结果表明：(1)2010—2020年，郑州市生产空间占地面积持续下降，生活空间不断增加，生态空间先增加后减少。(2)2010—2020年，生态环境质量指数从0.3097持续降至0.3058,低质量区域不断扩张。农业生产用地的缩小，以及其他和水域生态用地被占用是导致生态环境质量恶化的主要因素。(3)自然发展情景下，生活空间存在扩张趋势，而生产和生态空间却不断下降，而生产优先情景和生态保护情景下，生活空间缩减，生产和生态空间不断上升。(4)三种情景中，生态保护情景下郑州市2035年的生态环境质量指数最高，且在该情景下郑州市生态环境质量水平也在不断提升。研究模拟未来土地利用格局变化及其引起的生态环境效应，将有利于优化现有土地利用空间格局，促进城市可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the land use data from 2010, 2015 and 2020, this study takes Zhengzhou as the research area and analyzes the spatiotemporal changes patterns of Production-Living-Ecological and eco-environmental quality from 2010 to 2020, using land use transfer matrix and eco-environmental effect methods. In addition, based on the data of land use in 2015, the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model was adopted to simulate the pattern development of Production-Living-Ecological space in 2035 by combining three scenarios of natural development, production space priority, and ecological protection. The regionally eco-environmental quality index and ecological contribution rate were calculated under the three scenarios. The results showed that:(1) from 2010 to 2020, the production space area in Zhengzhou showed a decreasing trend, while the living space kept going up, and the ecological space firstly increased and then decreased.(2)The eco-environmental quality index continuously declined from 0.3097 to 0.3065 from 2010 to 2020. The low-quality areas gradually increased. The reduction of agricultural production land, other ecological land and water ecological land were the main factors leading to the deterioration of eco-environment quality in Zhengzhou. Under the natural development scenario, the living space shows the expanding trend, while the production and ecological space gradually declined. In the production priority scenario and ecological protection scenario, the living space reduced, while the production and ecological space continuously increased. Among the three scenarios, the eco-environmental quality index of Zhengzhou in 2035 under the ecological protection scenario will be the highest, and its eco-environmental quality level under this scenario will be also constantly improving. Simulating future land use pattern change and its eco-environmental effects will be helpful for optimizing the existing land use spatial pattern and promoting the sustainable urban development.更多还原