【摘要】 为了更好地反映区域可持续发展能力的问题,选取粤港澳大湾区作为研究区域,利用一套结合遥感技术方法的基于能量流的能值生态足迹模型,精确评估该地区1994—2018年的能值承载力、能值生态足迹以及环境压力的演变过程,并利用脱钩模型和对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解模型进一步揭示经济增长方式对环境压力的影响程度和作用机制。结果显示:1)25年以来,在区域尺度,粤港澳大湾区环境压力增长了超过两倍,生态安全等级由较安全逐渐转变为轻度不安全。2)在城市尺度,珠海的环境压力在11个城市中最低,生态环境一直处于安全状态,与其相反的是佛山的环境压力很高,生态环境甚至由重度不安全恶化为极度不安全。而惠州生态安全等级变化最大,由安全转变为轻度不安全。3)生态安全等级的演变与产业结构和能源结构变化有着密切的关系,而与经济增长的关系则经历了弱脱钩到扩张型负脱钩到弱脱钩再到强脱钩的过程,可见环境压力受经济增长影响的作用在逐渐减弱,究其原因主要是人口密度下降所带来的人口效应和技术进步所带来的技术效应促进了环境压力脱钩。因此未来可以进一步通过合理控制建设用地扩张,大力发展科学技术,减少人口压力有效提高粤港澳大湾区的可持续发展水平,寻求经济—社会—生态的效益最大化。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to better reflect the regional sustainable development capacity, we take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA) as the research region, and a set of emergy ecological footprint model, which is based on energy flow combined with remote sensing technology, is applied to accurately evaluate the evolution of emergy carrying capacity, emergy ecological footprint and environmental pressure in this region. In addition, we also use the decoupling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)decomposition model to further reveal the impact degree and mechanism of economic growth mode on environmental pressure.Results show that: 1) the environmental pressure of the GBA has tripled over the past 25 years, and the ecological security level has gradually changed from sub-security to slight insecurity on the regional scale. 2) On the urban scale, Zhuhai has the lowest environmental pressure among the 11 cities, and its ecological environment has been kept in the status of security during the study period. While Foshan has a high environmental pressure, and the status of ecological environment has even deteriorated from severe insecurity to extreme insecurity. Besides, the greatest difference of ecological security level is occurred in Huizhou, which has changed from security to slight insecurity. 3) The evolution of ecological security level is closely related to the changes of industrial structure and energy structure, while the relationship with economic growth has experienced a process from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling, then to weak decoupling and finally to strong decoupling. It can be seen that the effect of environmental pressure is gradually weakened by economic growth, which is mainly due to the population effect caused by the decline of population density and the technology effect brought by the technological progress. Consequently, the sustainable development level of the GBA can be effectively improved by reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land, vigorously developing science and technology,releasing population pressure, and seeking the maximization of economic, social and ecological benefits in the future.更多还原