【摘要】 21世纪人类正面临气候变暖和人口激增的双重挑战。随着城镇化进程的推进，城市CO₂排放将持续增长。考虑到城镇化水平提升和城市体系优化是城镇化发展的两大核心问题，在STIRPAT模型的基础上，从城镇化水平、城市体系双重视角，探索1971—2018年世界117个国家城镇化发展的碳排放效应。结论显示，城镇化水平提升对CO₂排放具有明显的正向促进效应；最大城市人口占比提高则有效降低了CO₂排放。通过更换主要解释变量及模型方法，上述结论仍然成立。研究认为，应进一步注重城市群都市区域协调发展，通过促进城市人口进一步向大城市集聚以缓解城镇化水平提升带来的CO₂排放促进效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 21st century,human beings are facing the dual challenges of climate warming and population explosion.With the advancement of urbanization,urban CO₂ emissions will continue to grow.Considering that urbanization level improvement and urban system optimization are two core issues of urbanization development.Based on STIRPAT model,this paper explores the carbon emission effect of urbanization development in 117 countries during 1971-2018 from both urbanization level and urban system prospects.The results show that the improvement of urbanization level has a significant positive effect on CO₂ emissions.The increase in the proportion of the largest city population effectively reduces CO₂ emissions.By changing the model method and the main explanatory variables,the above conclusions are still valid.This paper believes that further attention should be paid to the coordinated development of urban regions in urban agglomerations.By promoting the further migration of urban population to large cities,the promotion effect of CO₂emission caused by the improvement of urbanization level should be alleviated.更多还原