【摘要】 机构改革是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要手段。什么因素决定了一个政府机构的变迁?我国政府机构变迁背后存在怎样的发生机制?在现有机构变迁解释的基础上，基于政策反馈理论补充了一个新的理解中国公共政策过程中政策反馈与机构变迁机制的分析框架。通过对新中国成立以来生育政策及其主管机构的变迁历程进行翔实的历史追踪分析，检验了上述分析框架的合理性与适用性。研究发现，从新中国成立至今，生育政策及其主管机构共发生6轮“互相强化变迁”和2轮“互相弱化变迁”。具体发生机制是，生育政策的政策设计和资源分配分别通过阐释效应和资源效应影响了主管机构的合法性(即决策者支持和民众满意)和能力(即行政层级、职能范围、人员编制和财政投入),导致了生育政策主管机构变迁(计生委、人口计生委、卫计委和卫健委)。政策主管机构变迁进而影响了下一时期的生育政策变迁。在此期间，决策者和民众对生育政策执行效果的学习效应导致了“互相强化变迁”阶段向“互相弱化变迁”阶段的彻底转变。因此，政策反馈与机构变迁的过程机制解释了生育政策与其主管机构之间的“趋势一致性”演变逻辑。综上，分析框架探索了政策与机构之间的相互作用关系，这有助于理解中国机构改革的动力机制和演变路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Institutional reform is an important means to promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. What determines the change of a government agency? What is the mechanism behind the change of government’s institutions? Based on the policy feedback theory, this study supplements a new analytical framework for understanding the institutional change mechanism in the policy process. Through tracking the process of changes in Chinese fertility policy and its competent institutions, this study examines the rationality and applicability of the framework. This study finds that there have been six rounds of “mutually reinforcing change” and two rounds of “mutually weakening change” in fertility policy and its institutions.The specific mechanism is that, through interpretive effects and resource effects, the policy design and resource allocation of fertility policy affect the legitimacy and ability of the institutions.Changes in institutions in turn influence the changes in fertility policy in the next period.During this period, on the implementation effects of the fertility policy, the learning effects of policy makers and the public lead to the complete transformation from the stage of “mutually reinforcing change” to “mutually weakening change”.Therefore, the framework explains the evolution logic of “trend consistency ”between fertility policy and its competent institutions.In conclusion, this study explores the interaction between policy and institutions, which is helpful to understand the dynamic mechanism and evolution path of institutional reform in China.更多还原