【摘要】 通过GED分布的GARCH(1,1)模型测度碳排放权波动率，利用Quantile-on-Quantile回归探究两次突发事件对碳排放权波动率的影响，分析了新冠疫情和俄乌冲突期间相关政策的有效性。研究证实两个事件都导致碳市场波动加剧。新冠疫情的影响在发展阶段达到顶峰后迅速下降，而俄乌冲突保持着持续增长的趋势。研究还指出，7 500亿欧元的绿色复苏计划和“REPowerEU”能源计划对稳定碳市场发挥了积极的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The GARCH(1,1) model of GED distribution is used to measure the volatility of carbon emissions,and the Quantile-on-Quantile regression is used to explore the impact of two emergencies on the volatility of carbon emission rights and to analyze the effectiveness of relevant policies during the COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Research confirms that both events have led to increased volatility in the carbon market.The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic declined rapidly after reaching its peak in the development stage, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict maintained a trend of sustained growth. The study also pointed out that the 750 billion euro green recovery plan and the "REPowerEU" energy plan have played a positive role in stabilizing the carbon market.更多还原