【摘要】 为高效利用岷江上游流域的水资源，基于1960～2018年流域水文气象资料，采用多种统计学理论分析径流的趋势、周期和突变点，应用基于Budyko理论的弹性系数法(Choudhury-Yang公式)和累积量斜率变化率比较法(SCRCQ法)对径流变化进行归因分析。结果表明，径流以12.5 mm/10a的速率呈显著减少趋势，并在1993年发生突变。径流变化存在3、8、12、18年的主周期，其年内分配不均，主要集中于夏秋两季，占比73.6%。降雨对径流变化最为敏感，下垫面参数次之，潜在蒸散发最不敏感。Choudhury-Yang公式和SCRCQ法计算出气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别达到58.13%、63.29%,表明气候变化是研究区径流减少的主要因素，而人类活动对径流减少的贡献亦不容低估，贡献率分别达到41.87%、36.71%。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to efficiently utilize water resources in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River Basin, based on hydro-meteorological data of the basin from 1960 to 2018, a variety of statistical theories were used to analyze the trend, cycle and abrupt point of runoff. The elastic coefficient method based on Budyko theory(Choudhury-Yang formula) and the comparative method of cumulated slope change rate(SCRCQ method) were used to analyze the attribution of runoff changes. The results show that the runoff decreases significantly at a rate of 12.5 mm/10a, and a sudden change occurred in 1993. There are 3 years, 8 years, 12 years and 18 years main cycles of runoff change, and the annual distribution is uneven, mainly concentrated in summer and autumn, accounting for 73.6%. Rainfall is the most sensitive to runoff, followed by underlying surface parameters, and potential evapotranspiration is the least sensitive. Choudhury-Yang formula and SCRCQ method calculated that the contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction was 58.13% and 63.29%, respectively. Climate change was the main factor of runoff reduction in the study area, and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff reduction should not be underestimated, reaching 41.87% and 36.71%, respectively.更多还原