【摘要】 运用广州市第六次、第七次人口普查街道/乡镇尺度数据，基于象限方位分析、标准差椭圆分析、比较统计地图、非参数空间自相关分析等方法，研究了2010—2020年广州城市人口空间结构、人口密度空间集聚特征与人口增量演化趋势。研究发现：从人口空间分布形态来讲，广州市人口在城乡空间结构中仍然呈明显的“核心—外围”格局，主城区范围人口占市域人口的62.38%;从人口重心变化趋势来讲，细微地呈现出向西南方向偏移，这与城市东北地区被定位为生态保护中心和产业中心有关；从人口密度集聚特征来讲，Global Moran’s I指数为0.746,距市中心12.17km以内的地区系数为正，存在较强的人口集聚现象；从人口增量演化趋势来讲，广州市人口增量呈现“西北—东南”方向增长轴，并与城市发展轴形成重合，未来相关地区人口增量有可能进一步得到提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the street/township-scale population data of the sixth & seventh census of Guangzhou, the evolutionary trends of the spatial structure of urban population, spatial clustering characteristics of population density and population increment in Guangzhou in 2010-2020 were studied based on quadrant azimuth analysis, standard deviational ellipse, cartogram, and nonparametric spatial autocorrelation.The study finds that:(1)In terms of the spatial distribution of population, Guangzhou’s population distribution still shows a clear“core-periphery”pattern in the urban-rural spatial structure, with the population in the main urban area occupy-ing 62.38% of the population in the urban spatial clusters.(2)In terms of the moving trend of population gravity center,Guangzhou’s population gravity center shows a tiny trend of moving to the southwest,which is in line with Guangzhou’s strategic positioning of the northeast region as an industrial center and ecological protection center.(3) In terms of the population density clustering,there is a strong population clustering phenomenon,with the Global Moran’s I index of 0. 746,and positive coefficients for areas within 12. 17 km from the city center.(4) In terms of the overall evolution of population growth,the main direction of population growth in Guangzhou is in the northwest-southeast direction,and it overlaps with the urban development axis,and the population increment in the relevant areas may be further increased in the future.更多还原