【摘要】 文章建立市场需求、政府补贴、碳污染支出与产能过剩四个系统研究现行补贴政策的经济效益及影响机理，并根据不同情景模拟结果为政策转型提供建议。研究结果表明，产能过剩损失是造成现行政策的经济效益持续为负的主要原因。与现行政策初衷相悖，新能源汽车的市场低迷在其作用下并无明显改善。但补贴结束后增幅有明显提高，长期效果转好。政府应将补贴倾斜于新能源汽车生产者，每三年调整退坡速度，每年在上年基础上退坡20%最有利于提高政策的经济可持续性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article establishes four systems of market demand,government subsidies,carbon pollution expenditure and excess capacity to study the economic efficiency and impact mechanism of the current new energy vehicle subsidy policy,and provides suggestions for policy transformation based on the simulation results of different scenarios.The research results show that the loss of excess capacity is the main reason for the continuous negative economic benefits of the current policy.Contrary to the original intention of the current policy,the market downturn of new energy vehicles did not improve significantly under its effect. However,there is a significant increase after the end of subsidies and the long-term effect turns out to be better.The government should tilt the subsidies in favor of new energy vehicle producers and adjust the rate of retreat every three years,with an annual 20% retreat from the previous year most conducive to improving the economic sustainability of the policy.更多还原