节点文献
长江经济带PM2.5时空演变及健康经济效益评估
Temporal and Spatial Evolution of PM2.5 and Health Economic Benefit Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
【摘要】 系统分析了《大气污染防治行动计划》考核为优秀、良好、合格的36个城市在2017—2019年细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度的时空分布情况,借助BenMAP解析控制PM2.5污染带来的健康经济收益,对PM2.5浓度和气象因素进行Pearson相关分析,同时利用地理加权回归确定控制PM2.5污染带来的经济收益的多种社会经济驱动力。结果表明:(1)2017—2019年长江经济带PM2.5年均浓度降低了17%;(2)长江经济带因PM2.5浓度降低而减少的全因死亡人数为67 943人,获得经济收益1 548.18亿元;(3)2017—2019年长三角城市群空气质量改善获得的经济收益为558.62亿元,占长江经济带经济收益的36.08%,长江中游城市群空气质量改善获得的经济收益为554.71亿元,占长江经济带经济收益的35.83%,成渝城市群空气质量改善获得的经济收益为430.71亿元,占长江经济带经济收益的27.82%;(4)平均气温与PM2.5浓度有显著相关性,人口密度对控制PM2.5的经济收益影响最大。根据以上分析,提出对成都、重庆、南昌、合肥、扬州、黄石、武汉、九江、上海、黄冈等经济效益大的城市优先管控,并提出了分区分类治理区域大气污染和对人口密度高、城镇化率高的地区严格把控等政策建议。
【Abstract】 The spatial and temporal distribution of PM2.5 concentration in 36 cities assessed as excellent, good and qualified in Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan was systematically analyzed from 2017—2019. Pearson correlation analysis of PM2.5 concentration and meteorological factors was conducted with the help of BenMAP analysis on the health and economic benefits of PM2.5 pollution control. At the same time, geographical weighted regression was used to identify the multiple socio-economic driving forces for the economic benefits of controlling PM2.5 pollution. The results showed that(1) The annual average concentration of PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased by 17% from 2017 to 2019.(2) The total number of avoided all-cause deaths in the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased due to the decrease of PM2.5 concentration was 67,943, and the economic benefit was 154.818 billion.(3) From 2017 to 2019, the economic benefit of air quality improvement in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was 55.862 billion RMB, accounting for 36.08% of the economic benefit of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the economic benefit of air quality improvement in the middle reached of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration was 55.471 billion RMB, accounting for 35.83% of the economic benefit of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The economic benefit of air quality improvement in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration was 43.071 billion RMB, accounting for 27.82% of the economic benefit of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.(4) There was a significant correlation between average air temperature and PM2.5 concentration, and population density had the greatest influence on economic benefits of PM2.5 control. According to the above analysis, the priority control of cities with great economic benefits, such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Nanchang, Hefei, Yangzhou, Huangshi, Wuhan, Jiujiang, Shanghai and Huanggang was put forward. Two policy suggestions, such as controlling regional air pollution by classification and strictly controlling areas with high population density and high urbanization rate were proposed.
【Key words】 PM2.5; spatial autocorrelation; geographically weighted regression; BenMAP; atmospheric pollution prevention;
- 【文献出处】 安全、健康和环境 ,Safety Health & Environment , 编辑部邮箱 ,2023年11期
- 【分类号】X513
- 【下载频次】125