【摘要】 控污减排是实现生态环境持续优化和经济社会可持续发展的有效手段。基于2003—2020年我国30个省(市、区)数据，采用门槛模型和空间SARAR模型，实证考察了环境规制对废水排放的作用机制。结果表明：环境规制对废水排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应，虽然现阶段环境规制会促进废水排放量的增长，但是技术创新和人力资本水平的提升有利于减弱这种正向促进作用；环境规制与废水排放之间的空间溢出效应来自于三方面的共同作用，分别是废水排放自身的空间依赖性、环境规制的空间扩散和溢出，以及无法考察的随机误差项的空间冲击和干扰，前两者表现为正向的空间溢出效应，而最后一项则表现为负向的空间溢出效应。为了充分发挥环境规制的控污减排效应，除了适当提高环境规制强度和加强跨区域合作，还需要重视技术创新和人力资本水平的提升，以及其他空间影响因素的深入挖掘。更多还原

【Abstract】 Pollution control and emission reduction are effective means to achieve continuous optimization of ecological environment and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020, the panel threshold model were the spatial SARAR model were used to estimate the mechanism of environmental regulation on wastewater discharge. The results show that there is significant threshold effect between environmental regulation and wastewater discharge. Although environmental regulation can promote the growth of wastewater discharge currently, improvement of technological innovation capability and human capital level will help to alleviate this positive effect. Furthermore, the spatial spillover relationship between environmental regulation and wastewater discharge comes from the synergy of the three aspects, specifically, wastewater discharge, environmental regulation and random error terms. The first two will exert the positive spatial spillover effect on wastewater discharge in adjacent areas, while the last one can help to reduce wastewater discharge in adjacent areas. Therefore, in order to take full advantage of environmental regulation improving water conservation and emission reduction, in addition to appropriately increase the stringency of environmental regulation and strengthen cross-border environmental cooperation, it is imperative to improve the technological innovation capability and human capital level, as well as explore other in-depth spatial factors.更多还原