【摘要】 达摩沟小流域历史上曾发生泥石流灾害事件，造成较大人员伤亡和财产损失。目前，该小流域主沟堆积大量煤矸石，主沟两侧坡面堆积有较多崩、坡积物。为分析泥石流再次发生的可能性与危险性，在无人机摄影测量和野外现场调查的基础上，详细分析达摩沟小流域泥石流发育条件，基于改进MacCormack-TVD有限差分法，采用Massflow软件对10,20,50,100 a一遇4种降雨概率条件下达摩沟暴发泥石流的工况进行数值模拟，得到达摩沟小流域在不同降雨概率下的泥石流危险性。结果表明：(1)在此4种降雨概率下，大部分区域的泥石流流速维持在0～3 m/s,泥深保持在0～4 m的水平，而峰值流量最大可达19 m/s,泥深最大可达3.85 m;(2)在100 a一遇的降雨强度下，达摩沟高危险性地区占16.54%,中风险地区占49.27%,低风险地区占34.19%;(3)模拟结果较好地符合泥石流的时空发育特征，展现了降雨强度对泥石流运动的影响规律，可为泥石流的预警监测提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mudslide disaster events had occurred in the Dharma Gully sub-basin area historically and caused a large casualties and property losses.At present, a large amount of coal gangue was piled up in the main ditch of the sub-basin, and more landslide deposits were accumulated on both slopes sides of the main ditch.In order to analyze the possibility and risk of mudslides reoccurring, this paper analyzed the development of mudslides in Dharma Gully sub-basin area in detail through UAV photogrammetry and field investigation.Based on the improved MacCormack-TVD finite difference method, the Massflow software was used to simulate the mudslide conditions and obtained the mudslide risk in Dharma Gully under 4 rainfall probabilities of 10years, 20years, 50years, and 100years.The results showed that:(1) Under the above 4 rainfall probabilities, the flow velocity of debris flow in most areas was 0～3 m/s, the mud depth was 0～4 m.The maximum flow rate could reach 19 m/s, and the maximum mud depth could reach 3.85 m;(2) Under the rainfall of 100-year, the high-risk areas in Damogou accounted for 16.54%,the medium-risk areas accounted for 49.27%,and the low-risk areas accounted for 34.19%;(3) The simulation results reproduced the temporal and spatial development characteristics of debris flow well, showed the influence of rainfall intensity on the movement of debris flow, which could provide some references for the early warning and monitoring of debris flow.更多还原