【摘要】 目的 运用动力学模型模拟不同干预措施对某训练基地7型腺病毒暴发疫情防控效果，探讨最佳防控措施。方法 数据来自中国人民解放军疾病预防控制中心报告的一起7型腺病毒暴发疫情，通过整理得到2021年2月1日-3月5日某训练基地7型腺病毒每日发病数量。基于7型腺病毒暴发流行情况，建立易感者-潜伏者-显性感染者-隐性感染者-移出者（SEIAR）和易感者-潜伏者-显性感染者-隐性感染者-隔离者-移出者（SEIAQR）模型，对7型腺病毒疫情发展情况、隔离措施和不同防控力度效果进行分析。结果 本起疫情无干预情况下，基本再生数为11.16，持续53 d，累计罹患率61.39%。如果提前10 d实施隔离措施，罹患率降低到0.65%，而疫情高峰之后介入，隔离效果失效。对于疫情中存在的隐性感染者还需辅助干预措施进行控制，包括开展环境消毒、药物预防、健康教育等措施，同时评估辅助干预措施防控力度为0%、25%、50%、75%和100%时的防控效果，随着防控力度加大，感染人数下降，100%防控力度可将发病例数降低68.1%。结论 SEIAR模型可以有效模拟7型腺病毒流行情况和干预效果，对于7型腺病毒暴发疫情，越早发现病例、隔离病例和加强防控管理，疫情控制效果越好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To use a dynamic model to simulate the effects of different intervention measures on epidemic prevention and control in the outbreak of adenovirus type 7 in a training base,and explore the best prevention and control measures. Methods The data came from an outbreak of type 7 adenovirus reported by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the People ’ s Liberation Army of China. The daily incidence of type 7 adenovirus at a training base from February 1st to March 5th,2021 was obtained through sorting. Based on the outbreak of adenovirus type 7 in a training base,susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-removed(SEIAR)and susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomaticquarantine-removed(SEIAQR)models were established to analyze the epidemic situation,isolation measures and effects of different prevention and control efforts of adenovirus type 7. Results Without intervention,the basic number of regeneration was 11.16,lasting for 53 days,and the cumulative incidence rate was 61.39%. If the isolation measures were implemented 10 days in advance,the incidence rate could be reduced to 0.65%,and the isolation effect would be ineffective after the peak of the epidemic. For those with latent infection in the epidemic situation,auxiliary intervention measures should be taken to control them,including environmental disinfection,drug prevention,health education and other measures. At the same time,the prevention and control effect of the auxiliary intervention measures should be evaluated when the prevention and control efforts were 0%,25%,50%,75% and 100%. With the increase of the prevention and control efforts,the number of infected people would decrease,and the 100% prevention and control efforts could reduce the number of cases by 68.1%. Conclusion The SEIAR model could effectively simulate the epidemic situation of adenovirus type 7 and the intervention effect. For the outbreak of adenovirus type 7,the earlier the cases were found and isolated,and the better the prevention and control management was,the better the epidemic control effect would be.更多还原