【摘要】 目的 比较GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、曲线拟合和指数平滑模型对江门市新会区人群华支睾吸虫感染率趋势的预测，为制定防治措施提供参考。方法 基于广东省疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所和江门市新会区疾病预防控制中心的监测数据，采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、曲线拟合和指数平滑模型分别对2016-2020年华支睾吸虫感染率进行拟合建立模型，并比较拟合精度和拟合效果选出最优模型。结果 GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、曲线拟合(S型曲线)和指数平滑模型(霍尔特线性趋势模型)对2016-2020年江门市新会区华支睾吸虫感染率拟合后的平均绝对百分比误差分别为11.43%、11.06%和13.15%，预测2021年江门市华支睾吸虫感染率分别为8.04%、6.91%和7.11%，预测的相对误差分别为-26.71%、-36.98%和-35.19%。根据3种模型的拟合精度和拟合效果比较，S型曲线拟合精度最好，GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的预测效果最好。结论 GM(1,1)灰色预测模型能更好地对江门市新会区人群华支睾吸虫感染率进行短期预测，可为后期华支睾吸虫病防治决策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective GM(1,1) grey prediction model,curve fitting and exponential smoothing model were used to predict and compare the infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in Xinhui district,Jiangmen city,so as to provide reference for the formulation of control measures. Methods The surveillance data of the Institute for Parasitosis Prevention and Control of Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Jiangmen Xinhui Center for Disease Control and Prevention were analyzed. The GM(1,1)grey prediction model,curve fitting and exponential smoothing model were used to fit the infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis from 2016 to 2020,and the best model was selected by comparing the fitting accuracy and the fitting effect. Results The mean absolute percentage errors of GM(1,1)grey prediction model,curve fitting(S curve model)and exponential smoothing model(Hort linear trend model)for Clonorchis sinensis infection rates in Xinhui district,Jiangmen city from 2016 to 2020 were 11.43%,11.06% and 13.15%,respectively. The predicted infection rates of Clonorchis sinensis in Xinhui district,Jiangmen city in 2021 were 8.04%,6.91% and 7.11%,respectively,and the predicted relative errors were-26.71%,-36.98% and-35.19%,respectively. According to the comparison of fitting accuracy and fitting effect of the three models,the fitting accuracy of S curve model was the best,and the prediction effect of GM(1,1)grey prediction model was the best. Conclusion GM(1,1)grey prediction model could better predict the short-term infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in Xinhui district,Jiangmen city,and provide reference for the decisionmaking of clonorchiasis control in the later stage.更多还原