【摘要】 利用气溶胶激光雷达观测的消光系数数据，对2019年12月北疆沿天山的石河子市开展人工消减雾霾作业效果进行分析，主要采用了符号检验、成对秩和检验等非参数性检验法，以及参数性t检验法等人工影响天气的物理统计检验方法，得出了基于气溶胶激光雷达消光系数为依据的人工消减雾霾作业效果。结果为：符号检验法检验得出飞机人工消减雾霾作业后20 min, 400 m以下不同高度消光系数平均值减小的可信度达到非常显著的99.5%,进一步按照95%的可信度阈值得出减小值为0.05,减小率为9.8%;成对秩和检验法得出的作业正效果可信度达到97.5%,很显著；但是参数性t检验得出作业正效果的可信度只有90%～80%,未达到99.5%的阈值，显著性一般。这与作业采用了不同类型的催化剂如只用吸湿性干粉催化剂，以及播撒作业高度偏高导致作为样本的消光系数变化效果不能满足检验效率相关。进一步分析表明，飞机人工消减雾霾作业后20 min, 400 m以下不同高度消光系数的减小响应效果自上而下递减，这与人工影响作业播撒的催化剂作用的物理机制自上而下逐步响应的过程相一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economic and social development of Shihezi, especially the continuous advancement of industrialization, the pollution weather caused by the haze weather in Shihezi occurs frequently in winter. The heavy pollution weather caused by the haze in winter in 2019 has exceeded 50 days, and the ambient air quality has been deteriorating. In this paper, an analysis is made to investigate the impact of artificial smog dispersal in Shihezi, north of Tianshan Mountain, using the data of extinction coefficient observed by the aerosol lidar in Shihezi in December 2019. The methods mainly adopt the physical statistical test method of weather modification, such as the sign test, pairwise rank sum test of inspection, nonparametric tests, and parametric t-test. The smog reduction effect is obtained based on the extinction coefficient of aerosol lidar. In addition, the ground station monitoring cannot obtain the vertical distribution characteristics and evolution law of pollution. At present, most scholars use aerosol lidar to fill this monitoring gap and realize three-dimensional monitoring of the pollution process. The results are as follows: 20 minutes after the artificial smog dispersal operation, the reliability of the reduction of the average extinction coefficient at different heights below 400 m is 99.5%. Further, according to the 95% confidence threshold, the reduction value is 0.05, and the reduction rate is 9.8%. The reliability of the positive effect obtained by the pairwise rank sum test is 97.5%, which is very significant. However, the reliability of the positive effect obtained by the parametric t-test is only 90% to 80%, which does not reach the threshold of 99.5%, indicating a general significance. This is related to the fact that different types of catalysts are used in operation, such as only hygroscopic dry powder catalyst, and that the variation effect of extinction coefficient as samples cannot meet the test efficiency due to the high seeding height. Further analysis shows that the response effect of reducing the extinction coefficient at different heights below 400 meters decreases from top to bottom 20 minutes after the aircraft’s manual haze reduction operation, which is consistent with the gradual response process of the physical mechanism of the catalyst effect that artificially affects the operation seeding from top to bottom. In China, meteorologists have used weather modification to improve the quality of ambient air. In terms of this paper, the weather modification technology is used to carry out the winter haze reduction test in Shihezi. In the course of the test, the extinction coefficient detected by aerosol lidar is utilized to preliminarily analyze the test effect, which is the first time in China.更多还原