【摘要】 目的 研究适合我国人群的多瘤别个体癌症风险评估模型。方法 收集整理2018-01-01前世界癌症研究基金会(WCRF)、美国国家癌症研究所(NCI)和中国临床肿瘤学会(CSCO)发布或更新的指南和研究报告，以及2000-2017年发表的我国各瘤别发病危险因素相关文献。采用名义小组技术(NGT)和德尔菲法相结合的方法，确定癌症发病的主要危险因素及相关赋值，以哈佛疾病风险指数的计算方法为基础，构建计算模型，对个体常见癌症发病风险给予分级。结果 8名专家经专家共识，从317项初始指标中最终确定了154项指标。判断依据系数(Ca)为0.90,熟悉程度系数(Cs)为0.93,权威系数(Cr)为0.91。最终构建的多瘤别癌症风险评估模型包含基本信息、健康史、生活方式、职业及环境暴露、异常症状和筛查等6个方面的76项问卷条目，形成的模型可对常见的14种癌症进行风险等级分级。结论 该方法可用于评估我国居民常见癌症发病风险，筛选高危对象，为开展基于网络的癌症风险管理以及辅助基于社区的癌症筛查提供实用工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To develop a tool for predicting the risk of multiple types of cancer in the Chinese population.Methods Guidelines and research reports published or updated by the World Cancer Research Fund(WCRF),the National Cancer Institute(NCI),and the Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology(CSCO) before January 1,2018 and cancer epidemiological literature in China from 2000-2017 were collected and collated.A combination of nominal group technique and Delphi method were used to identify major risk factors and their relative assignments of different cancers.Based on the Harvard disease risk index, a computational model was constructed to classify the risk of common cancers among individuals.Results Through expert consensus, 154 indicators were finally determined from the initial 317 indicators.The judgment coefficient(Ca) was 0.90,the familiarity coefficient(Cs) was 0.93,and the authority coefficient(Cr) was 0.91.The finally-constructed multi-tumor cancer risk assessment model included 76 questionnaire items in six aspects: basic information, health history, lifestyle, occupation and environmental exposure, abnormal symptoms, and screening, which can be used to assess the risk of 14 common cancers.Conclusions The method we developed can be used to assess the risk levels of common cancers in Chinese residents, screen high-risk populations, and provide a practical tool for conducting web-based cancer risk management and supporting community-based cancer screening.更多还原