【摘要】 基于甘肃、宁夏和湖南三地首轮退耕农户的调研数据，采用A-F双界限方法测度退耕农户多维相对贫困发生率，在此基础上借助精确断点回归设计，实证检验退耕还林补贴到期对农户多维相对贫困的影响。结果表明：第一，补贴到期农户各维度及其多维相对贫困发生率均高于未到期农户；第二，补贴到期对相对收入、充分就业、生活水平、主观感知维度及多维相对贫困的局部平均处理效应均显著为正；第三，异质性分析发现，补贴到期对老年和低收入农户多维相对贫困的正向影响效应相对更强。鉴于此，从制定相关保障措施、建立防止返贫的动态监测和帮扶机制以及完善退耕还林后续政策等方面提出相应政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the survey data of farmer households who participated in the first round of the SLCP(sloping land conversion program) in Gansu, Ningxia and Hunan, this paper adopted the A F dual cut-off approach to measure farmer households’ multidimensional relative poverty, and empirically tested the impact of the expiration of subsidies for the first round of the SLCP on farmer households’ multidimensional relative poverty by using the Sharp Regression Discontinuity.The results show: firstly, each single dimension and multidimensional relative poverty incidence of farmer households whose SLCP subsidy has expired are higher than that of farmer households not expired; Secondly, the local average treatment effect of the expiration of subsidies for the SLCP on farmer households’ relative income, full employment, living standard, subjective perception and multidimensional relative poverty is significantly positive; and thirdly, the heterogeneity analysis finds that the expiration of subsidies for the SLCP has a relatively stronger positive effect on the multidimensional relative poverty of the aging farmer households and the low-income farmer households.Based on the results above, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of formulating relevant guarantee measures, establishing the dynamic monitoring and assisting mechanism to prevent re-poverty, and improving the follow-up policy of the SLCP.更多还原