【摘要】 为防止煤巷掘进工作面发生突出现象，以某矿盆底区南翼煤层掘进工作面为工程实例，综合运用数理统计和模糊聚类方法对“三指标”（钻屑瓦斯解吸指标Δh₂、钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q及其钻屑量指标S）进行了预测，并确定了突出敏感指标。基于室内试验测试，Δh₂与吸附平衡瓦斯压力p的关系呈幂函数拟合，并利用瓦斯压力临界值确定了Δh₂的临界值，同时采用“三率”法确定了S的临界值。结果表明：M（S）>M（Δh₂）>M（q），钻屑量S作为预测指标最为敏感，其次为Δh₂，Δh₂和S的临界值分别为195 Pa和6.0 kg/m，完全符合《防治煤与瓦斯突出规定》相关要求。该结果为其他类似矿井进行突出预测敏感性指标研究提供了宝贵的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 To prevent the phenomenon of appearing outburst at coal heading face, took south pelvic floor area coal roadway tunneling working face of a mine as example, comprehensively using the methods of mathematical statistics and fuzzy clustering of "three index" to determine the outburst sensitive index. Based on laboratory tests, the relationship between Δh₂and adsorption equilibrium gas pressure p is fitted by power function, and the critical value of Δh₂is determined by using the critical value of gas pressure, and the critical value of S is determined by "three rates" method. The results show that M（S）>M（Δh₂）>M（q）, the drilling cuttings S is the most sensitive as the prediction index, followed byΔh₂and the critical values of Δh₂and S are 195 Pa and 6.0 kg/m respectively, fully comply with the relevant requirements of the regulations on prevention and control of coal and gas outburst. The results provide a valuable reference for other similar mines to study the outburst prediction sensitivity index.更多还原