【摘要】 利用2019-2020年祁连山区241个观测站的小时降水量数据,对MERRA2降水量数据在祁连山区的适用性进行评估.结果表明,研究区MERRA2降水量数据与观测降水量数据的平均偏差为-1.50～0.62 mm,依据MERRA2数据分析的降水量变化基本反映了祁连山区降水量的分布和变化特征.研究区内北坡地区MERRA2降水量的日均值为9.2 mm,平均偏差-0.65 mm,均方根误差0.50 mm;山脊地区MERRA2降水量的日均值为13.8 mm,平均偏差-0.80 mm,均方根误差0.63 mm;南坡地区MERRA2降水量的日均值为10.6 mm,平均偏差-0.61 mm,均方根误差0.37 mm. MERRA2降水量数据在整个祁连山区的平均偏差为-0.69 mm,相对观测值表现出低估,随着观测站点海拔的升高, MERRA2降水量数据的模拟和同化精度也随之下降.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the hourly precipitation data of 241 observation stations in the Qilian Mountain areas from 2019 to 2020, the applicability of MERRA2 precipitation data in there were evaluated via the statistical analysis method. The results showed that the deviation range between MERRA2 precipitation data and observation data in the study area was-1.50～0.62 mm, and the precipitation change analyzed by MERRA2 precipitation data basically reflected the distribution and change characteristics of precipitation in the Qilian Mountain areas. The daily mean precipitation of MERRA2 on the north slope of the study area was 9.2mm, the deviation-0.65 mm, and the standard deviation 0.50 mm; the daily mean precipitation of MERRA2 in the ridge area was 13.8 mm, the deviation-0.80 mm and the standard deviation 0.63 mm; the daily mean precipitation of MERRA2 in the south slope area was 10.6 mm, the deviation-0.61 mm and the standard deviation 0.37 mm; the deviation of MERRA2 precipitation data in the whole Qilian Mountains was-0.69 mm; the MERRA2 precipitation data was underestimated relative to the observed values. With the increase in the altitude of the observation station, the simulation and assimilation accuracy of MERRA2 precipitation data also decreased.更多还原