【摘要】 【目的】基于火模拟结果构建森林火灾风险的评估框架，从火发生可能性、暴露性和火影响3个方面综合评估森林火灾风险。【方法】以黑龙江省大兴安岭地区为研究对象，利用Burn-P3模型模拟燃烧概率和潜在火行为。根据火险期火严重程度（SSR），把研究时段分为低、中、高3个SSR情景，分析不同SSR情景下的燃烧概率、潜在火行为和森林火灾风险。【结果】低、中、高SSR情景下燃烧概率的均值分别为0.018 4、0.035 8和0.057 0。高SSR情景下，燃烧概率高和很高的区域共占总面积的9.8%。低、中、高SSR情景下的火强度分别为687、1 276和3 469 kW/m~2，蔓延速度分别为1.43、1.82和4.43 m/min。综合分析火灾风险指数分别为0.12、0.44和1.25。不同的SSR情景下落叶针叶林的火灾风险最高。【结论】不同的SSR情景下燃烧概率差异显著，火强度、蔓延速度和森林火灾风险随SSR等级升高而增加。与中SSR情景相比，高SSR情景下的火强度和蔓延速度增加显著。森林火灾风险随SSR等级升高而增大，高SSR情景下的森林火灾风险比中SSR情景显著增大，但中SSR情景下的森林火灾风险与低SSR情景的差异不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】A framework of forest fire risk assessment was constructed to comprehensively assess fire risk from three aspects, such as fire likelihood, exposure, and fire impact based on the fire simulations. 【Method】The research took the Daxing’anling as study area and simulated its burn probability and potential fire behavior by using Burn-P3 model. Based on the seasonal severity rating (SSR)of each fire season, the study period was divided into low, moderate, and high SSR scenarios. The burn probability,potential fire behavior characteristics and forest fire risk were analyzed for every SSR scenario. 【Result】The average burn probability under low, moderate and high SSR scenarios were 0.018 4, 0.035 8, and 0.057 0, respectively. The areas with high and very high burn probabilities accounted for 9.8% of the total area under the high SSR scenario. The fire intensity were 687, 1 276,and 3 469 kW/m~2 for low, moderate, and high SSR scenarios, respectively. The spread speed were 1.43, 1.82, and 4.43 m/min,respectively. Based on comprehensive analysis, the forest fire risk indices were 0.12, 0.44, and 1.25 for low, moderate, and high SSR scenarios, respectively. Deciduous coniferous forests had the highest fire risk among all types under all SSR scenarios. 【Conclusion】Burn probability varies significantly among the SSR scenarios. Fire intensity, spread speed, and forest fire risk increased with SSR level up. Compared with the moderate SSR scenario, the fire intensity and spread speed under the high SSR scenario increased significantly. The forest fire risk under the high SSR scenario was significantly higher than that of moderate SSR scenario. However,the forest fire risk did not show significant difference between the moderate and low SSR scenario.更多还原