【摘要】 为解决村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨灾害时的风险问题，基于故障树和置信规则库推理方法，提出暴雨灾害链和村镇应急避难场所功能破坏链相结合的场所避难功能失效风险诊断模型。根据事故致因理论推理灾害节点变量，通过故障树描述灾害链，运用关联规则从历史灾害数据中挖掘规则，建立置信规则库系统，构建村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险诊断模型，并以四川省某寄宿制学校为例进行模型验证。研究结果表明：该模型可实现不同证据组合下村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险的诊断推理；实例的模型诊断结果与实际情况吻合，证实该模型能够科学地诊断村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨等恶劣自然条件时存在的风险，可为村镇应急避难场所规划设计和应急管理提供理论支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 To solve the risk problem of rural emergency shelters facing the rainstorm disaster, a risk diagnosis model of shelter function failure was proposed by combining the rainstorm disaster chain and function failure chain of rural emergency shelters based on the fault tree analysis and belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach(RIMER).The disaster node variables were inferred according to the accident-causing theory, and the disaster chain was described by the fault tree.The association rules were used to mine the rules from the historical disaster data, and the belief rule-base system was established to construct the risk diagnosis model on the functional failure of rural emergency shelters, and the model was verified by taking a boarding school in, Sichuan Province as an example.The results showed that this model could realize the diagnostic inference on the functional failure risk of rural emergency shelters under different evidence combinations.The model diagnosis results of the example were consistent with the actual situation, which confirmed that the model can scientifically diagnose the risk of rural emergency shelters facing the rainstorm and other severe natural conditions, and provide theoretical support for the planning, design and emergency management of rural emergency shelters.更多还原