【摘要】 为了提高权重量化的客观性和充分考虑尾矿库溃坝动态影响因素，以满足矿山安全评价动态信息化发展的需求，建立了基于结构熵权-数值模拟的可拓云溃坝动态风险评价模型。根据评价指标的动态性和固有性，构建了尾矿库溃坝风险动态评价指标体系；利用结构熵权法和数值模拟软件计算了评价指标的综合权重，以提高权重量化的客观性；引入物元可拓理论和云模型，构建了基于可拓云模型的尾矿库溃坝动态风险评价模型，并应用于某尾矿库的溃坝动态风险评价，评价了动态风险等级并提出了建议措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve the objectivity of weight quantification and fully consider the dynamic influencing factors of tailings dam failure, so as to meet the needs of dynamic informatization development of mine safety evaluation, a dynamic risk assessment model of extension cloud dam collapse based on structural entropy weight-numerical simulation was established. According to the dynamics and inherentness of the evaluation indicators, a dynamic evaluation index system for the risk of dam failure in tailings reservoir was constructed. The comprehensive weights of evaluation indicators were calculated by using the structural entropy weight method and numerical simulation software to improve the objectivity of weight quantification. Introducing the theory of material element extension and the cloud model, the dynamic risk assessment model of tailings dam failure based on the extension cloud model was constructed, which is applied to the dynamic risk assessment of a tailings dam failure. The dynamic risk level was evaluated and the recommended measures were put forward.更多还原