【摘要】 针对铜冶炼企业安全生产风险评价体系指标模糊性、不确定性和生产系统内部指标间存在复杂耦合关系的特点，提出基于DEMATEL-ANP-可拓云的铜冶炼企业安全生产风险评价模型用于确定铜冶炼企业安全生产风险水平。首先，基于系统安全理论并结合铜冶炼生产工艺流程特点，在查阅大量文献和咨询有关行业专家的基础上，建立了铜冶炼企业安全生产风险评价指标体系，该指标体系包括人员、设备、管理和作业环境因素4个一级指标和19个二级指标；其次，利用决策试验和评价实验室-网络层次分析(DEMATEL-ANP)方法求出各评价指标的权重，运用可拓云理论建立综合评价模型并计算云关联度，最终确定铜冶炼企业安全生产风险评价等级；最后，以葫芦岛某铜冶炼企业为例，运用评价模型对该铜冶炼企业安全生产风险进行综合评价，评价结果与企业实际情况相符，通过检验结果验证了评价模型的可行性和有效性。该评价模型可为高风险企业安全风险水平定量表征提供一种切实可行、有效的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the characteristics of fuzziness and uncertainty of indicators in the safety production risk assessment system of copper smelting enterprises and the complex coupling relationship between the internal indicators of the production system, this paper proposes a copper smelting safety production risk assessment model based on DEMATEL-ANP-extensible cloud to determine the copper smelting safety production risk level.First, based on the system safety theory and combined with the characteristics of the copper smelting production process, after consulting a large number of documents and consulting relevant industry experts, this paper establishes safety production risk assessment index system for copper smelting enterprises.The index system includes 4 first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators for personnel, equipment, management, and operating environment.Secondly, by the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-analytic network process(DEMATEL-ANP) method the weight of each assessment index is obtained, and then by the extension cloud theory a comprehensive assessment model is established and the cloud correlation degree is calculated.At the end, the paper determines the copper smelting safety production risk assessment level.Finally, taking a copper smelting enterprise in Huludao as an example, the paper uses the assessment model to assess the safety production risk of the enterprise.The assessment result is consistent with the actual situation of the enterprise.The feasibility and effectiveness of the assessment model are verified by the test results.The assessment model can provide a feasible and effective method for quantitative characterization of safety production risk level of enterprises in high-risk industries.更多还原