【摘要】 企业物流智慧化升级是指企业物流由“技术—功能—管理—组织—服务”智慧化的动态演进过程。在我国企业物流智慧化的实践中，政府有关补贴政策明显不足，因此构建企业物流智慧化升级与政府补贴决策的演化博弈模型，理论推导结果表明：企业与政府存在3个可能的均衡状态，分别是{物流智慧化升级，补贴}{维持现阶段水平，不补贴}和{物流智慧化升级，不补贴}；演化博弈系统主要受到8个因素干扰，这些因素均分别通过影响政府和企业的收益发生作用。在理论推导的基础上，进一步选取成本、补贴力度和税收优惠力度3个因素进行数值仿真分析，对系统演化路径加以验证，结果显示：企业物流智慧化升级成本的降低能极大提升企业物流智慧化升级的积极性，而无需政府补贴；政府提升补贴金额或加大税收优惠的力度并不能显著地提升企业物流智慧化的积极性，反而可能导致政府自身的财务危机。因此，为有效地促进企业物流智慧化升级，提出政府应设置适宜的政府补贴金额和税收优惠力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The intelligent upgrading of business logistics refers to the dynamic evolution process of intelligent business logistics from "technology-function-management-organization-service". In the practice of intelligent logistics of enterprises in China, the relevant subsidy policies of the government are obviously insufficient, therefore, an evolutionary game model of business logistics intelligent upgrading and government subsidy is constructed in this paper.As the result of theoretical deduction, it is showed that there are three possible equilibrium states between enterprises and government, namely {intelligent upgrading of business logistics, government subsidies}, {no intelligent upgrading of business logistics, government subsidies}, and {intelligent upgrading of business logistics, no government subsidies}.It is revealed also that eight factors affect mainly the process of the evolutionary game by income of the government and enterprises. On the basis of theoretical derivation, three factors including cost, subsidy and tax preference are further selected for numerical simulation analysis to verify the evolution path of the game. The result shows that the reduction of the cost of intelligent upgrading of business logistics can greatly enhance the enthusiasm of intelligent upgrading of business logistics without government subsidies; the government’s increase in the amount of subsidies or the strength of tax incentives can not significantly incentive the enthusiasm of intelligent upgrading of business logistics, but may lead to the government’s own financial crisis. Therefore, in order to effectively promote the intelligent upgrading of business logistics, it is proposed that the government should set appropriate amount of subsidies and tax incentives.更多还原