【摘要】 分时租赁模式正在逐步改变消费者的出行决策。采用演化博弈方法研究消费者出行决策与分时租赁模式之间的相互关系，构建演化博弈的复制动态方程，计算稳定均衡解并进行数值实验。研究发现，消费者出行决策与运营商的商业模式之间可能存在冲突，购车价格与出行强度是调节两者关系的关键因素。当出行次数和购车价格同时较高时，消费者和运营商都选择分时租赁模式；当购车费用较低但用车次数较高时，消费者会选择购买私家车出行，而运营商会选择销售服务；当使用次数较少同时购车费用较低时，消费者会选择私家车出行，运营商选择分时租赁模式。当销售价格相对较高而使用次数相对较少时，消费者选择分时租赁出行，但运营商只愿意选择销售模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 The per-use rental model is gradually changing consumers’ travel decisions. This paper employs an evolutionary game approach to study the relationship between consumer travel decisions and the per-use rental model. The replicated dynamic equations of evolutionary game are constructed, stable equilibrium solutions are calculated and numerical experiments are conducted. The research finds that there could be conflicts between consumer travel decisions and the business model, and the purchase price and travel intensity are key factors in their relationship. When both travel frequency and purchase price are high, both consumers and the firm choose the per-use rental model. When the cost of purchasing a car is low but the usage frequency is high, consumers would choose to buy private cars for travel, while the firm would choose to provide selling services. When both travel frequency and the purchasing cost are low, consumers would choose private cars for travel, while the firm will choose the per-use rental model. When the selling price is relatively high but the usage frequency is relatively low, consumers choose to use per-use rentals for travel, but firms are only willing to choose the sales model.更多还原