【摘要】 网络安全态势的感知、评估和预测已成为信息安全领域的重点研究方向。网络安全态势预测技术根据攻击事件的种类、频率等及关联融合后的态势值，利用过去时间的攻击事件信息及态势值对未来发展趋势进行预测，能够为网络管理人员提供必要的数据及信息。梳理常用的网络安全态势预测技术，分为不确定推理理论、机器学习方法、神经网络方法三大类；对每种网络安全态势预测技术进行分析对比，总结其优缺点；整理归纳在传统预测技术上的改进与优化，并讨论目前存在的问题及其未来的发展方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The awareness, assessment and prediction of network security situation become the key research direction in the field of information security. The network security situation prediction technology predicts the future development trend by using the attack event information and the situation value of the past time according to the type and frequency of the attack event and the associated situation value. Network security situation prediction can provide network managers with the necessary data and information. The paper sorted out the commonly-used network security situation prediction technology, including the theory of uncertain reasoning, machine learning methods, neural network methods. It analyzed and compared several network security situation prediction technologies, summed up their advantages and disadvantages. This paper summarized the improvement and optimization of traditional network security situation prediction technology, and the existing problems and future development direction of network security situation prediction were discussed.更多还原