【摘要】 基于2020年北京市“七普”数据，在非首都功能疏解背景下采用队列要素法对2021—2035年学龄人口的规模结构和义务教育资源需求进行预测。研究发现，义务教育学龄人口在2021—2026年持续增长，在2027—2032年保持相对平稳，并在2033—2035年迅速下降。教育资源需求的变化则呈现出不同趋势，其中教育经费需求在预测期内持续增长，教师资源和办学条件需求的变化趋势则与学龄人口基本一致。因此，在持续加大教育经费投入的前提下，北京市应在人口增长期内稳步扩大教育资源供给，有计划地扩充教师编制，根据区域、城乡和学科需求统筹调配并动态调整，保障义务教育资源需求；在平稳期内提前部署，通过鼓励集团化办学、新建九年一贯制学校等方式破解小学、初中教师冗余和不足交替的周期性困境，明确学校布局的决策标准，确定合理的学校数量、服务半径，避免教育资源浪费；在下降期内利用机会窗口调整教育资源布局，保障教育资源随人口流动而携带，推动义务教育优质均衡发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of Beijing from 2020 Seventh National population Census, the size and structure of the 2021-2035 school-age population was forecasted, along with basic education resource need through cohort component method. The results showed that the size of schoolage population will have been increasing during 2021-2026, remaining relatively stable from 2027 to 2032, and witnessing a sharp decrease after that until 2035. On the premise of enhancing financial investment in education, government of Beijing should: 1) steadily expand the supply of educational resources, enlarging the number of teachers in a planned way, and making overall allocation and dynamic adjustment within the total according to distributional, regional, and discipline needs, so as to ensure the educational needs of school-aged in the period of population growth;2) deploy in advance, encouraging collectivization of school running and build more nine-year schools to solve the periodic dilemma of redundant and insufficient teachers in primary and junior high schools, clarifying the decision-making standard of school layout, determine the reasonable number of schools and service radius, and avoid the waste of educational resources in the stable period; 3) fully exploit the opportunity window to adjust the layout of resources, ensure that resources are carried with mobilized children, and promote the high-quality and balanced development of compulsory education in the decreasing period.更多还原