【摘要】 本文使用时间趋势外推法和国际比较法，对2025—2035年我国高等教育的规模和经费进行了预测。基于我国高等教育适龄人口变动趋势和经济增长趋势并结合国际经验，本文认为使用国际比较法的保守预测结果是我国高等教育规模和经费的适宜目标，即：2025年、2030年、2035年我国高等教育毛入学率将分别达到63.4%、70.4%、77.4%,高等教育在学总规模将分别达到4885万人、6292万人、6897万人，高等教育经费将分别达到约2.0万亿元、3.1万亿元、3.8万亿元(按2020年价格计算),高等教育经费占GDP的比例将分别达到1.48%、1.75%和1.77%。根据这些预测结果，2035年我国高等教育毛入学率将达到发达国家目前的平均水平，高等教育经费占GDP的比例比发达国家目前的平均水平高0.4个百分点左右。由此提出如下政策建议：应合理规划高等教育的招生规模，保证高等教育规模与经济发展水平和人口变动趋势相协调；切实提高高等教育经费的使用效率，努力降低办学成本。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper uses time trend extrapolation method and international comparison method to predict the scale and funds of Chinese higher education from 2025 to 2035.Based on the changing trend of Chinese higher education school-age population and economic growth, combined with international experience, we hold that the prediction result from international comparison method is the appropriate target.In 2025,2030 and 2035,the gross enrollment rate of Chinese higher education will be 63.4%,70.4% and 77.4% respectively, the student scale in higher education will reach 48.85 million, 62.92 million and 68.97 million respectively, the funds of higher education will reach about 2.0 trillion yuan, 3.1 trillion yuan and 3.8 trillion yuan(in 2020 price) respectively, and the proportion of higher education funds in GDP will be 1.48%,1.75% and 1.77% respectively.In 2035,the gross enrollment rate of higher education will reach the current average level of developed countries, and the proportion of higher education funds in GDP will be about 0.4 percentage point higher than the current average level of developed countries.The research suggests that the enrollment of higher education should be rationally planned to ensure that the scale of higher education is coordinated with the level of economic development and the trend of population change.It’s also necessary to improve the use efficiency of higher education funds and strive to reduce the cost of school running.更多还原