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中国实现碳中和路径下气溶胶减少造成的气候影响(英文)

Climate effects of future aerosol reductions for achieving carbon neutrality in China

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【作者】 杨洋曾靓莹王海龙王品雅廖宏

【Author】 Yang Yang;Liangying Zeng;Hailong Wang;Pinya Wang;Hong Liao;Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology;Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory;

【通讯作者】 杨洋;

【机构】 Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense TechnologyAtmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

【摘要】 中国提出2030年碳达峰与2060年碳中和目标.在达到碳中和的路径下,得益于清洁空气政策气溶胶排放都将显著降低,这可能会对未来气候产生重要影响.本文利用气候模型结合中国本地化的未来排放情景,发现在达到2060年碳中和的过程中气溶胶减少将在东亚造成0.63 Wm-2的有效辐射强迫以及0.2K的地表增温.最大增温出现在中国东部,为0.5K.同时,华南地区降水将增加(>0.3 mm d-1).尽管碳中和背景下温室气体的减少将有利于缓解气候变化,但是未来清洁空气行动致使气溶胶排放的减少将部分抵消二氧化碳减排带来的气候制冷效应.该研究进一步发现虽然黑碳气溶胶只占中国气溶胶的很少一部分,但降低黑碳排放可能同时有益于空气质量改善并缓解气候变化,达到减污降碳协同增效.

【基金】 supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFA0606800);Jiangsu Science Fund for Carbon Neutrality (BK20220031);Jiangsu Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (BK20211541);support by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, as part of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program
  • 【文献出处】 Science Bulletin ,科学通报(英文版) , 编辑部邮箱 ,2023年09期
  • 【分类号】P467;X513
  • 【下载频次】27
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