【摘要】 本文结合新时代后我国经济运行和货币政策实施的情况数据，构建了包含中国六部门的存量流量一致的多主体宏观经济复杂系统模型，并通过蒙特卡罗模拟分析了中国2022～2032年间40个季度的经济增长、发展质量、流动性内循环和金融系统安全等问题。研究发现：(1)通过对实体厂商的产出分析，投资在模拟期内恰好呈现出一个完整周期，前期投资增长促进了消费供给复苏，但其下行阶段不仅会抑制消费需求增长，而且可能导致失业增加和信贷收缩；(2)完整周期内产能利用率和工资水平稳步上涨，投资回报率逐年回归均衡水平，但中期开始产出缺口扩大，物价震荡下跌；(3)由于模型引入盯住通胀的货币政策规则，银行能够保持充足流动性支持实体经济，融资缺口较小，但在投资周期驱动下信贷和货币总量会发生周期性波动，部分流动性流入国债市场；(4)模拟期内企业违约率低，银行资本充足率较高，银行资产质量较好，不存在流动性危机；(5)政府财政收入稳定增长，赤字和债务压力下降。因此，在统筹发展与安全的前提下，中国经济具备持续增长潜力。建议扩大实体投资，完善债转股等债务退出机制，提高金融系统服务实体经济的能力水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study constructs a six-sector Stock-Flow Consistent Agent-Based Macroeconomic model, informed by China’s macroeconomic landscape and monetary policy post-COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations, the paper investigates China’s economic growth, development quality, liquidity circulation, and financial systemic resilience over40 quarters from 2022 to 2032. Key findings include:(1) A complete cycle of investment is observed through the output analysis of two types of manufacturers. Early-stage investment boosts consumption supply recovery, but its subsequent decline may suppress consumption demand, potentially leading to unemployment and credit contraction.(2) The full cycle sees a steady rise in capacity utilization and wage levels, with investment returns gradually achieving equilibrium. However, the medium-term exhibits an expanding output gap and declining prices, indicating a structural downturn.(3) The system’s inflation-pegged monetary policy enables banks to sustain ample liquidity, supporting the real economy with minimal financing gaps. Nevertheless, investment cycles periodically drive fluctuations in credit and monetary aggregates, diverting some liquidity to the Treasury bond market.(4) Corporate defaults are rare during the simulation, ensuring high bank capital adequacy ratios and averting bank runs or liquidity crises.(6) Government fiscal revenues increase steadily, maintaining low deficit and debt pressures. Hence, China’s economy holds the potential for sustained growth, balancing security and development quality. The study recommends expanding real investment and enhancing debt-to-equity swap exit mechanisms to bolster the financial system’s support for the real economy.更多还原